Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins Pick – 4/23/2025

Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

The Minnesota Twins will host the Chicago White Sox in the second game of their series on April 23, 2025, at Target Field. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Twins sitting at 8-15 and the White Sox at 5-18. The Twins recently secured a victory, winning their last game against the White Sox by a score of 4-2 on April 22, 2025.

On the mound, the Twins are projected to start David Festa, who has made a splash this season with a remarkable ERA of 0.00 over his two starts. While Festa is ranked as the 89th best starting pitcher in MLB, his 3.92 xFIP suggests he may be due for some regression. However, he faces a White Sox offense that ranks dead last in the league, struggling to generate runs and power with just 17 home runs this season.

Bryse Wilson will take the hill for the White Sox. His ERA of 4.50 is average, but advanced metrics indicate he has been fortunate, as his 6.38 xERA points to a potential downturn in performance. Wilson’s recent outing was less than stellar, as he allowed 5 earned runs over 4 innings in his last start.

While the Twins rank 27th in both team batting average and runs scored, their bullpen is ranked 11th, providing a slight edge in late-game situations. The White Sox, on the other hand, have the 28th best bullpen and are unlikely to find much relief against a superior Minnesota pitching staff.

With a game total set at 8.5 runs and Minnesota favored heavily with a moneyline of -260, the projections favor the Twins to capitalize on their home advantage and continue to build momentum after their recent victory. This matchup presents an opportunity for Minnesota to exploit Chicago's weaknesses and potentially exceed their implied team total of 5.21 runs.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Bryse Wilson to be limited today, projecting a maximum of 65 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Typically, bats like Nick Maton who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as David Festa.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

It may be best to expect improved performance for the Chicago White Sox offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 2nd-unluckiest offense in the league this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. David Festa has used his secondary offerings 5.1% less often this season (55%) than he did last season (60.1%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Edouard Julien is penciled in 1st in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 59% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Minnesota Twins' bullpen projects as the 10th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.85 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.75 Units / 45% ROI)
• Harrison Bader has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+4.95 Units / 15% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago White Sox 4.05, Minnesota Twins 4.98

• Date: April 23, 2025
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bryse Wilson - White Sox
  • David Festa - Twins

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