Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins Betting Pick & Preview – 8/2/2024

Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins Details

• Date: August 2, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Davis Martin - White Sox
  • Joe Ryan - Twins

Betting Odds

Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

As the Minnesota Twins prepare to host the Chicago White Sox at Target Field on August 2, 2024, they're looking to extend their current strong showing in the American League Central. With a record of 59-48, the Twins are firmly in the playoff mix and have the momentum coming off a recent stretch in which they’ve performed well. In contrast, the White Sox continue to struggle at 27-84, laying claim to the worst record in MLB.

This matchup is particularly interesting as the Twins are projected to start Joe Ryan, who ranks as the 20th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. Ryan brings a solid 3.69 ERA this season and projects to allow an average of 2.2 earned runs over 6.0 innings. He faces a White Sox offense that has struggled significantly, recording the 30th-best overall ranking in MLB and a mere 90 home runs this year, which ranks 3rd least.

On the other side, the White Sox will send out Davis Martin, who carries a troubling 5.97 xFIP and projects to pitch only 3.6 innings, which represents a significant disadvantage. Despite having an impressive 3.38 ERA, Martin’s peripheral stats indicate that he may be living on borrowed time.

Adding to the Twins' advantage is their offense, which ranks 6th in MLB, showcasing a balanced attack that includes a potent home run threat. Meanwhile, the White Sox offense ranks among the league's worst, struggling to generate consistent scoring.

With a game total set at 8.5 runs and the Twins entering as heavy favorites with an implied team total of 5.30 runs, the odds suggest a potential for a lopsided contest. The combination of Ryan's solid pitching and the Twins' powerful lineup could make this matchup a challenging one for the White Sox.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

With 6 bats who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team's projected lineup, Davis Martin will have a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

There has been a decrease in Nick Senzel's average exit velocity this season, from 87.4 mph last year to 84.4 mph now

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Chicago White Sox have been the 2nd-unluckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in future games

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Joe Ryan's 93.4-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a substantial 1.8-mph jump from last season's 91.6-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (33.2) suggests that Royce Lewis has been very fortunate since the start of last season with his 43.3 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The 8.3% Barrel% of the Minnesota Twins makes them the #10 squad in baseball this year by this stat.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 28 games at home (+10.60 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in their last 5 away games (+5.40 Units / 92% ROI)
• Brooks Lee has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+6.60 Units / 63% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 3.89 vs Minnesota Twins 5.84

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.