Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins Betting Pick & Preview – 4/24/2024

Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins Overview

• Date: April 24, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Garrett Crochet - White Sox
  • Joe Ryan - Twins
• Run Line: White Sox 1.5 -135, Twins -1.5 115
• Money Line: White Sox 170, Twins -195
• Total (Over/Under): 6.5

Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Chicago White Sox - 36%
• Minnesota Twins - 64%

Projected Win %:

• Chicago White Sox - 34.45%
• Minnesota Twins - 65.55%

Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins Game Preview & Prediction

In a highly anticipated American League Central matchup, the Minnesota Twins will take on the Chicago White Sox on April 24, 2024, at Target Field. The Twins, currently the home team, are having a tough season with a record of 9-13. Similarly, the White Sox have struggled with a record of 3-20.

The Twins are projected to start Joe Ryan, a right-handed pitcher who is ranked as the 12th best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Ryan has started four games this season, with a win/loss record of 0-1 and an ERA of 3.57. Despite his solid performance, his 2.59 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform even better going forward.

On the other side, the White Sox will send Garrett Crochet to the mound. Crochet, a left-handed pitcher, is ranked as the 35th best starting pitcher in MLB. He has started five games this season, with a win/loss record of 1-3 and an ERA of 5.61. Similar to Ryan, Crochet's 2.86 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and may improve in future outings.

The Twins offense ranks as the 27th best in MLB this season, with a low team batting average and stolen bases ranking. However, they have shown power, ranking 7th in team home runs. The White Sox offense, on the other hand, ranks as the 30th best in MLB, with low rankings in batting average, home runs, and stolen bases.

Based on the current odds, the Twins are the favorites to win with a moneyline of -190 and an implied win probability of 63%. The White Sox, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +165 and an implied win probability of 37%.

With Joe Ryan's impressive projections, including an average of 6.0 innings pitched and 1.7 earned runs allowed, the Twins have an advantage on the mound. However, Garrett Crochet's high-strikeout ability matches up well against the Twins' high-strikeout offense.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Garrett Crochet's 95.7-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 94th percentile out of all starters.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Nicky Lopez has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (78% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The weakest projected offense of all teams today in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the Chicago White Sox.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Joe Ryan is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.8% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #21 HR venue in the league today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Edouard Julien has been hot recently, whalloping 4 homers in the past two weeks.

• Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 27 of their last 44 games (+12.00 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 55 of their last 99 games (+11.10 Units / 10% ROI)

White Sox vs Twins Prediction: White Sox 2.93 - Twins 3.86

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