Chicago White Sox vs Miami Marlins Prediction, Odds & Picks – 7/5/2024

Chicago White Sox vs Miami Marlins Details

• Date: July 5, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Drew Thorpe - White Sox
  • Bryan Hoeing - Marlins

Betting Odds

Chicago White Sox vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

The Miami Marlins will welcome the Chicago White Sox to LoanDepot Park on July 5, 2024, for the first game in their interleague series. Both teams are having rough seasons, with the Marlins sitting at 30-57 and the White Sox at 25-64. Despite their struggles, this matchup features some intriguing aspects from a sports betting perspective.

The Marlins are projected to start Bryan Hoeing, a right-handed pitcher who has an impressive 1.83 ERA in limited action this season. However, his underlying stats suggest he has been quite fortunate, with a 3.32 xFIP indicating potential regression. Hoeing will face a White Sox lineup that ranks 29th in MLB in batting average and 26th in home runs. Chicago's offense has been lackluster, but the team’s best hitter over the last week, Lenyn Sosa, has posted a .458 batting average and a 1.313 OPS across six games.

On the mound for the White Sox will be Drew Thorpe, another right-hander with a 4.43 ERA and an even more concerning 5.22 xFIP. Thorpe is a high-walk pitcher, and while he faces a Marlins lineup that ranks last in MLB in walks, this dynamic may neutralize his control issues. Miami's offense ranks 30th in both overall power and home runs, making it difficult to exploit Thorpe's high-flyball tendencies. However, Jesus Sanchez has been a bright spot for them lately, hitting .389 with two home runs and a 1.278 OPS over the last seven games.

The betting markets have this game as a toss-up, with both teams having an implied win probability of 50%. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, assigns the Marlins a 57% win probability. This suggests there might be value in betting on the Marlins, especially considering their bullpen's average ranking (16th) compared to the White Sox's struggling bullpen (28th).

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Andrew Thorpe's high usage percentage of his secondary pitches (60.9% since the start of last season) figures to work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Korey Lee has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.3-mph dropping to 79.5-mph over the past week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Chicago White Sox have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Paul DeJong, Luis Robert, Korey Lee).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Bryan Hoeing's 2056.9-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season grades out in the 13th percentile among all SPs.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Nick Fortes's true offensive skill to be a .270, suggesting that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .076 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .194 wOBA.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

Miami Marlins hitters jointly grade out 25th- in baseball for power this year when assessing with their 7.1% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 44 of their last 70 games (+15.70 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.45 Units / 37% ROI)
• Gavin Sheets has hit the Runs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.05 Units / 37% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 4.19 vs Miami Marlins 4.55

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.