Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction & Odds – 9/17/2024

• Date: September 17, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Davis Martin - White Sox
  • Griffin Canning - Angels

Betting Odds

Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

As the Los Angeles Angels prepare to face the Chicago White Sox on September 17, 2024, both teams find themselves entrenched in disappointing seasons, with the Angels sitting at 60-89 and the White Sox languishing at a dismal 35-115. Despite the rough records, this matchup presents an interesting dynamic, especially since the Angels are projected to start Griffin Canning, who has struggled but is facing a White Sox offense that ranks 30th in MLB.

In their last outing, the Angels fell to the White Sox in an 8-4 game, further complicating their season. Canning, with a 5-13 record and an ERA of 5.35, has been one of the league's less effective pitchers, yet his expected fielding independent pitching (xFIP) suggests he may have been unlucky this year, hinting at potential improvement. With an average projection of 5.6 innings pitched today, Canning is expected to allow 2.3 earned runs, and he could benefit from facing a weak White Sox lineup that has hit only 115 home runs this year, the lowest in the league.

On the other side of the mound, Davis Martin is also struggling, posting an 0-4 record and a 4.14 ERA in just eight starts. The projections indicate he may last only 4.9 innings today, allowing 2.7 earned runs, and his high walk rate could give the Angels a chance to capitalize if their offense can find some rhythm. While the Angels rank 26th in MLB offensively, they have been buoyed by the recent strong performance of Nolan Schanuel, who has been their best hitter over the last week.

With the Angels as the betting favorites at -165 and an implied team total of 4.44 runs, they have a chance to turn their season around in this matchup, especially against a White Sox team that is struggling to find its footing.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Out of all starters, Davis Martin's fastball spin rate of 2380 rpm grades out in the 78th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Nicky Lopez is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 52% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Chicago White Sox projected batting order ranks as the 2nd-worst on the slate in terms of overall batting ability.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Griffin Canning is expected to tally an average of 16.6 outs today.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Logan O'Hoppe has seen a big gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 92.7-mph average in the last two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 90.4-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels' bullpen projects as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 50 games at home (+5.50 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 25 of their last 43 games (+6.20 Units / 12% ROI)
• Zach Neto has hit the Singles Under in 28 of his last 41 games (+11.25 Units / 20% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 4.12 vs Los Angeles Angels 4.8

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.