Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction & Picks 9/18/2024

• Date: September 18, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jared Shuster - White Sox
  • Jack Kochanowicz - Angels

Betting Odds

Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

As the 2024 season winds down, the Los Angeles Angels (61-90) look to make the most of a dismal year when they host the Chicago White Sox (36-116) at Angel Stadium on September 18. Both teams have endured rough seasons and find themselves well out of contention, particularly the White Sox, who rank 30th in the league in overall performance and in virtually every major offensive category.

Yesterday, the Angels posted a 5-0 shutout win over the White Sox. On the mound today, the Angels will turn to Jack Kochanowicz, who has struggled with a 2-5 record and a 5.08 ERA. Though he's projected to pitch about 5.4 innings, his numbers suggest he could allow 2.5 earned runs on average, with a concerning 6.43 xERA indicating that luck has played a role in his season.

Facing Kochanowicz will be Jared Shuster for the White Sox, who sports a more manageable 4.54 ERA but has also faced challenges this year, with a 1-4 record. Shuster's projections show he's likely to allow a high number of hits—averaging 4.0—and his tendency to walk batters (1.6 walks projected) could be concerning against an Angels offense that, while underperforming, ranks as the 26th best in MLB.

In this matchup, Kochanowicz's skillset—specifically his ability to generate ground balls—could mitigate the White Sox's lack of power. The Angels, favored with a moneyline of -150, are projected to score close to 4.89 runs, which may be just enough to overcome the White Sox's offensive woes. Given the trends and overall team performance, oddsmakers view this game as a likely win for the Angels.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

This year, Jared Shuster has introduced a new pitch to his repertoire (a sinker), throwing it on 14.7% of his pitches.

• Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, although sinkers are generally one of the least effective pitches.

Andrew Vaughn has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.5-mph to 93.9-mph in the past week's worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

It may be sensible to expect better results for the Chicago White Sox offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 3rd-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

The Los Angeles Angels outfield defense projects as the strongest among every team on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Nolan Schanuel has experienced some positive variance in regards to his home runs this year; his 13.5 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is significantly inflated relative to his 9.5 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The Los Angeles Angels bullpen projects as the 3rd-worst in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Run Line in 32 of their last 57 games at home (+6.55 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 29 away games (+8.00 Units / 24% ROI)
• Andrew Vaughn has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+4.65 Units / 16% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 4.37 vs Los Angeles Angels 5

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