Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals Prediction & Odds – 7/19/2024

Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals Details

• Date: July 19, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Flexen - White Sox
  • Michael Wacha - Royals

Betting Odds

Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

On July 19, 2024, the Kansas City Royals will host the Chicago White Sox at Kauffman Stadium in the start of a three-game series. The Royals, sitting at 52-45, are enjoying an above-average season, standing 3rd in the American League Central. In stark contrast, the White Sox, with a dismal 27-71 record, find themselves at the bottom of the division.

Kansas City is slated to start right-hander Michael Wacha, who boasts a 3.83 ERA over 16 starts. Wacha, ranked as the 75th best starting pitcher by the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, has an average projection of 5.7 innings with 2.6 earned runs allowed today. His counterpart, Chris Flexen, a low-strikeout pitcher with a 4.82 ERA, has struggled mightily this season, sporting a 2-8 record over 18 starts. Flexen is projected to pitch 5.1 innings and allow 3.2 earned runs on average.

Offensively, the Royals hold the edge with a middle-of-the-pack offense, ranking 15th overall. They are 11th in team batting average and 7th in stolen bases, indicating a balanced mix of contact and speed. Conversely, the White Sox possess the worst offense in MLB, ranked last in overall performance and 29th in batting average. Despite a respectable ranking of 15th in team stolen bases, their power numbers lag significantly, sitting 28th in home runs.

The Royals’ bullpen, ranked 17th, holds an advantage over the White Sox’s, which ranks 27th. This disparity could play a crucial role, especially if the game hinges on late-inning relief.

Betting lines reflect Kansas City’s dominance, with the Royals as heavy favorites at -205 odds, implying a 65% win probability. Chicago, listed at +175, faces an uphill battle with just a 35% implied probability.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Chris Flexen's higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this year (61.4% vs. 54.5% last season) ought to work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Andrew Benintendi's true offensive skill to be a .314, implying that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .064 difference between that mark and his actual .250 wOBA.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

Tommy Pham hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 93rd percentile) and will be challenged by the game's 4th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Michael Wacha's 92.9-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a significant 1.5-mph jump from last season's 91.4-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Maikel Garcia has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (95% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 5th-least strikeout-prone lineup in today's games is the Kansas City Royals with a 19.7% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 31 games (+8.80 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 18 away games (+6.85 Units / 35% ROI)
• Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 31 games (+12.80 Units / 27% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 4.38 vs Kansas City Royals 5.46

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