Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals Pick – 5/5/2025

Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

On May 5, 2025, the Kansas City Royals will host the Chicago White Sox at Kauffman Stadium in what marks the first game of their series. Kansas City enters this matchup with a record of 19-16, indicating an above-average season, while Chicago struggles significantly at 10-24, reflecting a disappointing year.

In this game, the Royals have Cole Ragans projected to start. Ragans, ranked as the 8th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, has an ERA of 4.40, which is average, but his 2.57 xFIP suggests he has been unlucky and may improve. His ability to strike out 6.8 batters on average today bodes well against a White Sox offense that ranks 28th in MLB, particularly since they have struggled to convert fly balls into home runs, hitting just 26 long balls this season.

On the other side, Shane Smith will take the mound for Chicago. Despite a solid ERA of 2.23, his 4.48 xFIP indicates he has benefited from some good fortune. Smith's low strikeout rate of 19.6% may not exploit the Royals' low strikeout offense effectively, giving Kansas City a potential edge.

As for the offenses, the Royals rank 29th in MLB, while the White Sox sit just above them at 28th. This matchup is crucial for Kansas City, as they look to capitalize on their opponent’s weaknesses. With a current moneyline of -235, the Royals are favored to win, reflecting the betting market’s expectations. The game total is set at an average 8.0 runs, and Kansas City has an implied team total of 4.80 runs, while Chicago is projected at just 3.20 runs. Expect a battle of pitching prowess where the Royals aim to leverage their advantages to secure a win.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Shane Smith has been lucky this year, putting up a 2.23 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.55 — a 2.32 discrepancy.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Andrew Vaughn has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 94.8-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal 90.9-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The 2nd-weakest projected offense of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive ability is that of the the Chicago White Sox.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Among all SPs, Cole Ragans's fastball spin rate of 2551 rpm ranks in the 99th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Hitters such as Salvador Perez with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Shane Smith who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The 5.8% Barrel% of the Kansas City Royals makes them the #30 offense in the majors this year by this stat.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 25 games (+9.25 Units / 33% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Over in their last 5 games (+5.10 Units / 86% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago White Sox 3.5, Kansas City Royals 4.66

• Date: May 5, 2025
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Shane Smith - White Sox
  • Cole Ragans - Royals

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