Chicago White Sox VS Kansas City Royals Betting Pick & Preview – 04/06/2024

Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals Overview

• Date: April 6, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Flexen - White Sox
  • Michael Wacha - Royals
• Run Line: White Sox 1.5 -115, Royals -1.5 -105
• Money Line: White Sox 175, Royals -205
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 -130

Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Chicago White Sox - 35%
• Kansas City Royals - 65%

Projected Win %:

• Chicago White Sox - 35.4%
• Kansas City Royals - 64.6%

Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals Game Preview & Prediction

On April 6, 2024, the Kansas City Royals will face off against the Chicago White Sox in an American League Central matchup at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals, with a record of 4-4, are having an average season so far, while the White Sox, with a record of 1-6, are struggling.

The Royals are projected to start right-handed pitcher Michael Wacha, who has had an average performance this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Wacha is below average compared to other starting pitchers in MLB. In his one start this year, Wacha has a 5.40 ERA, but his 3.42 xFIP suggests he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward.

The White Sox will counter with right-handed pitcher Chris Flexen, who has been struggling this season. Flexen's ERA stands at a high 8.31, but his peripheral indicators, such as his 7.56 SIERA and 7.00 xERA, suggest he has been unlucky and could improve in future outings.

In their last game, the Royals faced the White Sox and came out victorious with a score of 2-1. The Royals were the favorites to win the game, with a closing Moneyline price of -180 and an implied win probability of 63%. On the other hand, the White Sox were considered underdogs, with a closing Moneyline price of +160 and an implied win probability of 37%.

Offensively, the Royals rank as the 14th best team in MLB this season, with an average performance. Their best hitter, Bobby Witt Jr., has been impressive, boasting a .375 batting average and a 1.226 OPS. The White Sox offense, on the other hand, ranks as the 26th best in MLB, with below-average performances in various categories.

In terms of pitching, the Royals bullpen ranks 23rd in MLB, while the White Sox bullpen ranks last at 30th. This could give the Royals an advantage if the game comes down to the late innings.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects the Royals as a big favorite in this game with a win probability of 65%. Based on the current odds, the Royals have a high implied team total of 4.96 runs.

Overall, the Royals seem to have the edge in this matchup, with a stronger offense and a more favorable projected win probability. However, anything can happen in baseball, and the White Sox will be looking to turn their season around. It's sure to be an exciting game at Kauffman Stadium.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Chris Flexen is projected to throw 85 pitches in today's game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 14th-least on the slate today.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Martin Maldonado in the 1st percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

The Chicago White Sox have 4 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Paul DeJong, Luis Robert, Yoan Moncada, Martin Maldonado).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

When estimating his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Michael Wacha in the 77th percentile among all starters in baseball.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Nelson Velazquez has big-time power (97th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (32.7% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Chris Flexen struggles to strike batters out (5th percentile K%) — great news for Velazquez.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

The Kansas City Royals bullpen profiles as the 8th-worst in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Final Score Prediction: Chicago White Sox 4.29 vs Kansas City Royals 5.57

Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.