Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros Prediction & Picks 8/18/2024

• Date: August 18, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ky Bush - White Sox
  • Framber Valdez - Astros

Betting Odds

Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

As the Houston Astros prepare to face the Chicago White Sox on August 18, 2024, they find themselves battling for postseason positioning, sitting at 66-56, while the White Sox languish at a dismal 30-94. This matchup marks the third game of their series, and the Astros will look to extend their momentum after a recent 6-1 victory against Chicago, where they showcased their offensive prowess.

The Astros are projected to start Framber Valdez, an elite left-handed pitcher with a Power Rankings position of 12th among approximately 350 pitchers. Valdez has had a standout season with a 12-5 record and a commendable ERA of 3.38. His ability to generate ground balls (60% GB rate) may play well against a White Sox lineup that struggles to hit for power, managing only 90 home runs this season, the 3rd fewest in MLB. This groundball-heavy approach could limit the White Sox’s scoring opportunities significantly.

On the other side, the White Sox plan to send Ky Bush to the mound. Bush has had a rocky start to his career, posting a 0-1 record with an ERA of 5.19. The projections suggest he may struggle against an Astros offense ranked 11th overall and 2nd in team batting average, which has recently been bolstered by Alex Bregman’s hot hitting—recording 6 hits and 5 RBIs in the last week.

With the Astros' potent offense facing a struggling pitcher like Bush and with their top-tier bullpen ranked 4th in the league, Houston looks to be in an advantageous position. The Astros carry a strong betting line of -390, indicating confidence in their ability to secure another win against a White Sox team that ranks dead last in multiple offensive categories.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Ky Bush has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 7.2 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than average.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Luis Robert has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 97.6-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 90.9-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Chicago White Sox bullpen grades out as the worst in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Framber Valdez's curveball utilization has risen by 5.2% from last year to this one (24.4% to 29.6%) .

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.273) implies that Jake Meyers has suffered from bad luck this year with his .229 actual batting average.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Jose Altuve pulls many of his flyballs (41.6% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 63 of their last 107 games (+16.60 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 23 away games (+5.90 Units / 22% ROI)
• Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+8.00 Units / 80% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 3.43 vs Houston Astros 5.41

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