Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros Prediction, Odds & Picks – 8/17/2024

• Date: August 17, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Flexen - White Sox
  • Hunter Brown - Astros

Betting Odds

Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

On August 17, 2024, the Houston Astros will host the Chicago White Sox at Minute Maid Park for the second game of their series. The Astros, currently sitting at 65-56, are having an above-average season and are well-positioned for a playoff push. In contrast, the White Sox are struggling mightily with a record of 30-93, marking them as one of the worst teams in baseball this year.

In their last outing, the Astros faced off against the White Sox and the White Sox emerged victorious, in what was a huge surprise in Houston. The Astros are projected to start Hunter Brown, who has been solid this season with a 10-7 record and a respectable ERA of 3.96. Brown ranks as the 37th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, suggesting he has the potential to improve further based on his 3.45 xERA.

On the other side, the White Sox will counter with Chris Flexen, who has struggled this year, posting a 2-11 record and a poor ERA of 5.34. Flexen's low strikeout rate and high walk percentage could spell trouble against an Astros lineup that ranks 2nd in MLB in team batting average and 11th overall in offensive production.

The projections favor the Astros heavily, giving them an implied team total of 5.24 runs, while the White Sox are expected to struggle, with a low implied total of just 2.76 runs. Given the Astros' strong bullpen, ranked 3rd in MLB, and the White Sox's 30th-ranked bullpen, this matchup leans heavily in favor of Houston. Expect the Astros to capitalize on their offensive advantages and Hunter Brown's ability to keep the ball on the ground against a power-deficient White Sox lineup.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Chris Flexen has relied on his off-speed and breaking pitches 7.7% more often this year (62.2%) than he did last season (54.5%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Typically, batters like Nicky Lopez who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Hunter Brown.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Miguel Vargas hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 94th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league's 8th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Hunter Brown's 95.2-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 86th percentile out of all starters.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Over the past week, Yordan Alvarez's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 14.4% up to 20%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Houston Astros have 4 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Zachary Dezenzo, Shay Whitcomb, Chas McCormick, Jon Singleton).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 67 of their last 116 games (+15.05 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 18 away games (+7.35 Units / 35% ROI)
• Dominic Fletcher has hit the Singles Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+7.70 Units / 96% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 3.33 vs Houston Astros 5.22

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