Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros Prediction, Odds & Picks – 8/16/2024

• Date: August 16, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Garrett Crochet - White Sox
  • Spencer Arrighetti - Astros

Betting Odds

Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

As the Houston Astros prepare to host the Chicago White Sox on August 16, 2024, the stakes are clear. The Astros, with a record of 65-55, are firmly in contention with a lineup that ranks as the 11th best in MLB, bolstered by a potent .270 team batting average, which ranks 2nd overall. On the other hand, the White Sox struggle significantly with a 29-93 record, placing them at the bottom of the league standings.

In their latest outings, the Astros got a win over the Tampa Bay Rays in 10 innings, while the White Sox were defeated by the New York Yankees. While the Astros have a well-rounded offense showcasing good power with a 9th rank in team home runs, the White Sox offense is mired in difficulties, ranking a dismal 30th in MLB.

Pitching will play a crucial role in this game, with Spencer Arrighetti slated to start for the Astros. Although he has had an underwhelming season, ranking 136th among starting pitchers with a Win/Loss record of 5-10 and a 5.14 ERA, he is facing a White Sox lineup that has been largely ineffective against right-handed pitchers. Arrighetti's xFIP of 4.04 suggests that he may be due for a turnaround, especially since the White Sox rank 29th in team batting average and struggle for power, hitting only 90 home runs this season.

On the other side, Garrett Crochet, who is enjoying a solid season as evidenced by his 3.65 ERA and ranking 6th among starters, will try to contain an Astros offense that has been hot with Yordan Alvarez leading the charge in recent games. While Crochet's 6-9 record raises questions, the projections indicate he has been unlucky this season and could shine against a low-strikeout Houston lineup.

With the Astros favored at -185, they are expected to capitalize on this favorable matchup, and the projections reflect a high implied team total of 4.57 runs for Houston. Expect a competitive game, but the trends favor the Astros, who are looking to put more distance between themselves and their competitors.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Garrett Crochet’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 outings (2550 rpm) has been a significant increase over than his seasonal rate (2491 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Luis Robert has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 99.9-mph average in the past week's worth of games to his seasonal 90.7-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Miguel Vargas hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 94th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 8th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Spencer Arrighetti is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.1% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #10 HR venue among all stadiums in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Jake Meyers has suffered from bad luck this year. His .294 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .341.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 3rd-least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the Houston Astros with a 19.3% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 64 of their last 111 games (+14.25 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 12 away games (+7.95 Units / 55% ROI)
• Jose Altuve has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 32 games (+11.35 Units / 26% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 3.88 vs Houston Astros 4.68

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.