Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros Prediction – 6/12/2025

The Houston Astros, with a solid record of 37-30 this season, will host the struggling Chicago White Sox, who sit at a disappointing 23-45, for their third matchup of the series on June 12, 2025. The Astros are currently enjoying a good season, while the White Sox have been mired in a rough patch. Houston's offense ranks 16th overall, but they have shown glimpses of potential, as we saw in their 10-2 win over the White Sox on Wednesday.

As for pitching, Davis Martin is slated to start for the White Sox. Martin has had a tough season, evidenced by his 2-6 record and being labeled as one of the least effective pitchers in MLB according to advanced metrics. While his 3.62 ERA appears solid, his 4.23 xFIP indicates he has benefited from luck and may regress. Facing a low-strikeout Astros offense that ranks 4th least in strikeouts, Martin could struggle to exploit his strengths. He will face Houston's Framber Valdez, who enters the day at 6-4 with a respectable 3.07 ERA.

The Astros will look to take advantage of the White Sox's ailing bullpen, ranked 30th in MLB, while Houston's bullpen holds a much healthier 10th place ranking. Betting odds favor the Astros heavily with a moneyline of -250, reflecting a 69% implied win probability for Houston. The projections suggest a high team total of 4.55 runs, contrasting with the White Sox's meager 2.95 runs. With their offense poised to capitalize on Martin's weaknesses, the Astros should be well-prepared to dominate this game.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Davis Martin's higher usage rate of his fastball this season (39.2 compared to 28.3% last season) is not ideal considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

The Chicago White Sox have 4 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Michael A. Taylor, Kyle Teel, Luis Robert Jr., Timothy Elko).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Extreme flyball bats like Victor Caratini tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Davis Martin.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Houston Astros bullpen projects as the 10th-best in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 29 games at home (+8.45 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 45 games (+11.25 Units / 25% ROI)
• Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+11.80 Units / 36% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago White Sox 3.53, Houston Astros 4.88

• Date: June 12, 2025
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Davis Martin - White Sox
  • Framber Valdez - Astros

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.