Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros Prediction – 6/11/2025

On June 11, 2025, the Houston Astros will host the Chicago White Sox at Minute Maid Park for the second game of their series. In the previous matchup, the White Sox emerged victorious, dropping Houston to 36-30 for the season. Overall, the White Sox are struggling, sitting at 23-44, which highlights their challenges this year.

Ryan Gusto is projected to take the mound for the Astros. Despite being ranked as the 177th best starting pitcher in MLB, Gusto has shown flashes of potential, having a 4.23 SIERA, indicating he may be due for better outcomes. He has a 3-3 record with a 4.78 ERA, but his projections suggest he could allow an average of 2.3 earned runs in 4.8 innings pitched today. Gusto’s high flyball rate could play to his advantage against a White Sox offense that has hit the fewest home runs in MLB.

Sean Burke will pitch for the White Sox, bringing a 4.03 ERA and a 3-6 record into the game. However, Burke’s 5.19 xFIP suggests he has been fortunate, and he projects to struggle against an Astros lineup that doesn’t strike out frequently. It’s worth noting that Houston's offense ranks just 16th in MLB, but they are facing a pitcher who has not been able to capitalize on strikeouts.

With the Astros sitting as the betting favorite with a moneyline of -180, they have an implied team total of 4.82 runs, while the White Sox are projected for just 3.68 runs. Given the disparity in pitching performance and offensive capabilities, the Astros look well-positioned to secure another win in this matchup.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Among all starting pitchers, Sean Burke's fastball spin rate of 2545 rpm is in the 98th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Luis Robert Jr. is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 90% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The 4th-worst projected lineup of the day in terms of overall batting ability belongs to the Chicago White Sox.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Considering that groundball batters hold a notable advantage over flyball pitchers, Ryan Gusto and his 36.7% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a tough position in this matchup being matched up with 3 opposing GB hitters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Cam Smith has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 102.6-mph average in the past week's worth of games to his seasonal 89.4-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Houston Astros bullpen ranks as the 9th-best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 28 games (+9.30 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 38 of their last 65 games (+10.80 Units / 15% ROI)
• Yainer Diaz has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games (+11.40 Units / 114% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago White Sox 4.34, Houston Astros 5.18

• Date: June 11, 2025
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Sean Burke - White Sox
  • Ryan Gusto - Astros

Check out all our free picks on every MLB game daily in our MLB betting section.