Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers Prediction & Picks 9/28/2024

• Date: September 28, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Sean Burke - White Sox
  • Beau Brieske - Tigers

Betting Odds

Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

As the Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox clash on September 28, 2024, at Comerica Park, the stakes are vastly different for these American League Central rivals. The Tigers, boasting an 86-74 record, are enjoying an above-average season, while the White Sox languish at 39-121, enduring a dreadful campaign. Detroit's playoff aspirations are alive, while Chicago's have long since faded.

In their previous encounter, the Tigers emerged victorious with a 4-1 win over the White Sox on September 27. This win further solidified Detroit's dominance in the series and underscored the stark contrast in their season trajectories.

Detroit's Beau Brieske takes the mound, bringing a 3.56 ERA, although his 4.20 xFIP suggests some luck has been involved. Despite being ranked as the 127th best starting pitcher, Brieske's ERA indicates his effectiveness. However, his projected 1.2 innings today is concerning, though he is expected to allow just 0.4 earned runs. The Tigers' bullpen, ranked 8th in the Power Rankings, stands ready to support him.

Opposite Brieske, Sean Burke starts for the White Sox with an impressive 1.93 ERA over limited appearances. Despite his excellent ERA, his 3.36 xFIP hints at potential regression. Burke is projected to pitch 4.4 innings, allowing 2.2 earned runs on average, which could be pivotal given Chicago's league-worst offense.

Offensively, the Tigers rank 23rd overall, with Riley Greene leading the charge. Kerry Carpenter has been hot recently, boasting a .385 batting average and two home runs over the last week. For the White Sox, Andrew Vaughn is their standout hitter, while Korey Lee has shown recent promise.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, favors the Tigers with a 67% win probability, aligning with their status as betting favorites. Detroit's superior bullpen and offensive edge make them the team to watch in this matchup.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Compared to average, Sean Burke has been granted a below-average leash this year, throwing an -13.8 fewer adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Nicky Lopez is penciled in 1st in the batting order in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Andrew Vaughn hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 89th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 2nd-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Kerry Carpenter has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 96.3-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 90.3-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Projected catcher Jake Rogers projects as an elite pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 51 of their last 77 games (+22.60 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 28 away games (+9.65 Units / 31% ROI)
• Riley Greene has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+5.80 Units / 52% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 3.31 vs Detroit Tigers 4.58

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