Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers Prediction & Picks 6/22/2024

Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers Details

• Date: June 22, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Drew Thorpe - White Sox
  • Kenta Maeda - Tigers

Betting Odds

Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

The Detroit Tigers, sitting at a 35-40 record, are set to host the Chicago White Sox, who have a dismal 20-57 mark, on June 22, 2024, at Comerica Park. This American League Central matchup features two teams that are struggling this season, with the Tigers having a below-average year and the White Sox enduring a terrible campaign. Detroit comes into this game as favorites, sporting a -155 moneyline with an implied win probability of 59%.

On the mound, the Tigers will start Kenta Maeda, a right-hander who has had a rough season with a 6.02 ERA. Despite this, Maeda's underlying metrics suggest he's been unlucky, as his 4.91 xFIP indicates. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, anticipates Maeda to pitch 5.5 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs while striking out 5.2 batters. The projections also highlight Maeda's propensity to give up hits and walks, which could be problematic.

The White Sox will counter with Drew Thorpe, also a right-hander, who has struggled even more. Thorpe's 8.64 ERA over just two starts is glaring, though his 6.92 xFIP suggests a bit of bad luck. Projections indicate Thorpe will go 5.1 innings, giving up 2.7 earned runs and 5.4 hits, while managing only 3.9 strikeouts. Thorpe’s control issues may also hurt him, as he's expected to allow 1.5 walks.

Offensively, both teams are among the worst in MLB. The Tigers rank 26th in overall offense, 24th in batting average, 24th in home runs, and 28th in stolen bases. Meanwhile, the White Sox are dead last in offense and batting average, 26th in home runs, and middle-of-the-road at 16th in stolen bases. This game could tilt in Detroit’s favor, given their bullpen’s 13th place ranking versus the White Sox’s 29th.

Detroit's Riley Greene has been on fire over the last 7 games, boasting a .400 batting average and a 1.300 OPS, which could provide the Tigers with an extra boost. Chicago's Tommy Pham has also been productive, with a .300 average and .981 OPS over the same period, but it's unlikely to be enough to offset the team's significant struggles.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Andrew Thorpe didn't have his best stuff when it came to striking hitters out in his previous game started and put up 0 Ks.

• A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

Gavin Sheets's average exit velocity has declined recently; his 89.2-mph seasonal EV has fallen to 80.3-mph in the last week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

In today's game, Tommy Pham is at a disadvantage facing the league's 2nd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.4% rate (96th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Kenta Maeda is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.7% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #23 HR venue among all stadiums in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (18.8) provides evidence that Colt Keith has had bad variance on his side this year with his 7.7 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Jake Rogers, the Tigers's expected catcher in today's matchup, grades out as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 37 games (+7.35 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.75 Units / 33% ROI)
• Andrew Vaughn has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+8.70 Units / 51% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 4.37 vs Detroit Tigers 5

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