Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers Pick – 4/5/2025

Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

The Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox continue their series at Comerica Park on April 5, 2025, after the Tigers took the first game in a thrilling matchup. Currently, both teams are struggling, with the Tigers sitting at 3-4 and the White Sox at 2-5. While the White Sox are projected to underperform this season, the Tigers have a slightly better outlook based on their advanced-stat Power Rankings.

On the mound, the Tigers are expected to start Reese Olson, who is rated as the 48th best starting pitcher in MLB, showcasing his potential despite a rough start this season with a 0-1 record and a 7.71 ERA. Olson's xFIP of 3.37 suggests he may improve, projecting to allow 2.0 earned runs and strike out 5.6 batters on average today. However, he also faces challenges, such as allowing 4.8 hits and 1.5 walks on average, which could hinder his performance.

Opposing Olson is Davis Martin, who boasts a perfect 0.00 ERA this year, but his 4.25 xFIP indicates that luck might not be on his side moving forward. Martin is projected to pitch 5.0 innings, allowing an average of 2.6 earned runs, while striking out 4.6 batters, which falls below average.

With the Tigers favored at -220, expectations are high for a solid performance, especially considering their offensive output in recent games. The Game Total is set at a low 7.5 runs, indicating a potentially defensive battle between these two teams.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Among all starting pitchers, Davis Martin's fastball spin rate of 2387.5 rpm is in the 80th percentile since the start of last season.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Extreme flyball hitters like Nick Maton generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Reese Olson.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox' bullpen projects as the 2nd-worst among all the teams in MLB.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Given that groundball pitchers are hit hardest by flyball hitters, Reese Olson (48.1% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged today with 2 FB hitters in Chicago's projected batting order.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Andy Ibanez is penciled in 6th in the lineup in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

In today's game, Andy Ibanez is at a disadvantage facing the league's 2nd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.7% rate (95th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 52 of their last 85 games (+19.55 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 50 away games (+8.45 Units / 15% ROI)
• Nick Maton has hit the Singles Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 51% ROI)

• Date: April 5, 2025
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Davis Martin - White Sox
  • Reese Olson - Tigers

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