Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers Betting Pick & Preview – 6/21/2024

Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers Details

• Date: June 21, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Erick Fedde - White Sox
  • Jack Flaherty - Tigers

Betting Odds

Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

With both teams struggling this season, the Detroit Tigers (34-40) and Chicago White Sox (20-56) are set to face off on June 21, 2024, at Comerica Park. This American League Central matchup features two teams trying to find some semblance of consistency in an otherwise tough year.

The Tigers will send Jack Flaherty to the mound, a right-handed pitcher ranked as the 40th best starting pitcher according to the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X. Flaherty has started 13 games this season, holding a solid 3.01 ERA and a 4-4 record. His 2.18 xFIP suggests he's been unlucky and could perform even better going forward. Flaherty is projected to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing 2.1 earned runs and striking out 6.0 batters on average. His strike-throwing ability might give the White Sox an edge, as Chicago ranks 2nd in fewest walks in MLB, showing a tendency to swing early and often.

On the other side, the White Sox will counter with Erick Fedde, the 68th best starting pitcher in MLB this season. Fedde has been fortunate this year with a 3.09 ERA, but his 3.65 SIERA indicates some luck. Despite a 5-1 record, he is expected to allow 2.7 earned runs over 5.7 innings while striking out 5.0 batters. Both pitchers have a knack for allowing hits and walks, with Fedde projected to give up 5.7 hits and 1.6 walks.

Offensively, both teams have been among the worst in MLB. Detroit ranks 26th in overall offense, 24th in both batting average and home runs, and 28th in stolen bases. Meanwhile, the White Sox sit dead last in overall offense and team batting average, 25th in home runs, and middle-of-the-pack at 16th in stolen bases. Recent performances have been a mixed bag; Detroit’s Riley Greene has been hot, hitting .381 with a 1.242 OPS over the last week, while Chicago's Andrew Benintendi has hit .400 with a 1.262 OPS.

The Tigers' bullpen, ranked 13th currently, might be a crucial factor in this game compared to the White Sox’s 29th-ranked bullpen. With a low game total of 7.5 runs and the Tigers being favored with a -170 moneyline, Detroit's stronger pitching and marginally better offense might give them the edge in this series opener against an underperforming Chicago squad.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Compared to average, Erick Fedde has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an extra 5.6 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Gavin Sheets has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 7.8% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the past 7 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Tommy Pham hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 97th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB's 2nd-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Jack Flaherty's slider rate has jumped by 6.3% from last season to this one (24.8% to 31.1%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Jake Rogers has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 97.9-mph average to last year's 95.4-mph figure.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Jake Rogers (the Tigers's expected catcher in today's game) projects as an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 49 games (+7.90 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 30 games (+8.10 Units / 23% ROI)
• Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.30 Units / 62% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 3.83 vs Detroit Tigers 4.52

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.