Chicago White Sox vs Colorado Rockies Prediction – 7/4/2025

Two of the worst teams in baseball will meet on Friday night, as the Chicago White Sox face the Colorado Rockies. Both teams have struggled this year, but someone has to win this game on July 4th. Here, I take a deep dive into this interleague matchup and make my White Sox vs Rockies prediction.

Our White Sox vs Rockies Pick

Pick: Chicago White Sox moneyline (−124)

Confidence: ★★★★☆

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Game Snapshot

  • Matchup: Chicago White Sox vs Colorado Rockies
  • Date & Time: Friday, July 4, 2025, at 8:10 p.m. ET
  • Starting Pitchers: Adrian Houser (CHW, 3‑2, 1.90 ERA) vs Antonio Senzatela (COL, 3‑11, 6.69 ERA)
  • Stadium: Coors Field, Denver, CO
  • Broadcast: CHSN and Rockies.TV

Key Storylines

Pitching form

Chicago’s Adrian Houser has been on fire this year, with a 1.90 ERA through 42.2 innings. He has been one of the lone bright spots in a difficult season for the White Sox. Colorado’s Antonio Senzatela has struggled badly, entering tonight with a 6.69 ERA. While pitching at Coors Field is no picnic for any pitcher, Senzatela has had an especially hard time this season.

Bullpen usage

With Coors Field’s notoriously thin air, starters rarely go deep. That could cause problems for both sides, as both teams enter this game with a bullpen ERA over 4.00 for the year.

Recent team streaks

The White Sox have lost three straight games coming into this contest. To be fair, those three losses came against the LA Dodgers, in games that were a bit of a mismatch. The Rockies got a rare win in their last game, beating the Houston Astros to improve to 20-67 in 2025.

Best Player Props

PlayerPropLine
Andrew BenintendiHome runsOver 0.5 (+600)
Adrian HouserStrikeoutsOver 4.5 (+130)
Miguel VargasTotal basesOver 1.5 (-115)
  • Chicago is 4-3 in Houser’s starts this season
  • Colorado is 19-67 as an underdog this year.
  • This is the first game in which the White Sox have been a favorite all season.
  • This is the first game in a three-game season series between these teams.

White Sox vs Rockies Model Projection

Score Projection: White Sox 6 – Rockies 4

Win Probability: White Sox 56%, Rockies 44%

Final Thoughts

This game leans heavily in favor of the White Sox in my opinion. Adrian Houser’s dominant form and Senzatela’s continued struggles should give the White Sox the upper hand in their first game as a favorite in 2025. While Coors Field can ignite offense on both sides, Chicago’s superior starting pitching, should help them avoid damage on the scoreboard best.


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Home MLB Picks Chicago White Sox vs Colorado Rockies Prediction – 7/4/2025