Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction, Odds & Picks – 7/2/2024

Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Details

• Date: July 2, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Flexen - White Sox
  • Carlos Carrasco - Guardians

Betting Odds

Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

On July 2, 2024, the Cleveland Guardians will host the Chicago White Sox at Progressive Field in an American League Central matchup. The Guardians are currently leading the division with an impressive 52-30 record, showcasing their strong season. In contrast, the White Sox are struggling immensely, sitting at 24-62 and near the bottom of the standings.

The Guardians are projected to start Carlos Carrasco, a right-handed pitcher currently ranked as the 318th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Despite his 5.27 ERA, Carrasco's 4.32 xFIP suggests that he might have been somewhat unlucky and could potentially perform better moving forward. Carrasco's 3-6 record in 14 starts doesn't reflect his capability either. However, his projection for 5.4 innings pitched, 2.8 earned runs, and 4.3 strikeouts shows an average performance ahead.

The White Sox counter with Chris Flexen, another right-handed pitcher who has also struggled this season. Flexen holds a 2-7 record with a 5.13 ERA in 15 starts. Like Carrasco, his peripherals indicate some bad luck, with a 4.47 xERA. Flexen is expected to pitch 5.3 innings, allow 2.9 earned runs, and strike out just 3.2 batters, indicative of his low-strikeout approach.

The Guardians offense, ranking 11th overall, should have the upper hand against the White Sox, who rank 29th. Cleveland's ability to hit home runs (10th) and steal bases (8th) further tilts the scales in their favor. Chris Flexen's low strikeout rate combined with the Guardians' low strikeout offense (#5 in fewest strikeouts) could spell trouble for the White Sox.

The Guardians' bullpen, ranked 2nd by advanced-stat Power Rankings, presents a stark contrast to the White Sox's 28th-ranked bullpen, likely giving Cleveland an edge in the late innings.

Jose Ramirez has been on fire for the Guardians, with a .345 batting average, 1.207 OPS, and four home runs over the last week, providing a significant offensive boost. Meanwhile, Andrew Vaughn has been the standout for the White Sox, with a .316 batting average and .996 OPS over his last six games.

With a moneyline of -195, the Guardians have a solid 64% implied win probability, and with an implied team total of 5.18 runs, they are expected to fare well against the struggling White Sox.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Chris Flexen projects to strikeout 3.2 bats in this game, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Over the past week, Tommy Pham's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.8% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Tommy Pham hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 96th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball's 7th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

With 6 batters who share his hand in the opposing team's projected batting order, Carlos Carrasco should benefit from holding the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Tyler Freeman has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.1-mph dropping to 81.7-mph in the last two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Cleveland Guardians have been the luckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress the rest of the season

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 41 of their last 67 games (+14.55 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.35 Units / 30% ROI)
• Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+10.10 Units / 51% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 4.48 vs Cleveland Guardians 4.94

Check out all our free picks on every MLB game daily in our MLB betting section.