Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction – 9/12/2025
The Chicago White Sox head to Progressive Field to open a three-game set with the Cleveland Guardians on Friday. Both clubs know each other well after 10 meetings already this season. Cleveland has held the upper hand with eight wins in those 10 games. With the calendar deep into September and every game magnified for teams fighting for position, this opener matters for Cleveland’s postseason push. Here, I break down this AL Central matchup and give you my White Sox vs Guardians prediction.
Our White Sox vs Guardians Pick
- Pick: Over 7.5
- Confidence: 4/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians
- Date and Time: Friday, September 12, 2025, 7:10 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Martin Perez vs Tanner Bibee
- Stadium: Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
- Broadcast: MLB.tv
Key Storylines
- The Guardians go into this weekend three games back of the Seattle Mariners for the final Wild Card spot in the American League. They are favorites to win at home to try and move closer in the standings. But the Guardians will need their pitching staff to step up for that to happen.
- The White Sox are the only team in the American League that has been eliminated from playoff contention so far this season. The White Sox are playing for pride late in the year and they are in a position here where they could play spoiler and hurt the playoff hopes of a division rival.
Pitching matchup
- Cleveland: Tanner Bibee will get the start for the Guardians for this game. He is 9-11 and has a 4.69 ERA for the year. Bibee’s swing-and-miss rate plays well in this park and he’s been among the Guardians’ most reliable arms over the course of the year.
- Chicago: Martin Perez is set to start this contest for the Chicago White Sox. Perez is just 1-4 so far this season but his 3.15 ERA and 1.07 WHIP suggest that he is better than his record shows. Perez will look to assemble another decent start in this game to give his team a chance to get a win.
Recent team streaks
- Chicago has won two straight games and three of their last four.
- Cleveland has won four of its last five games and took three out of four games against the Kansas City Royals in their last series.
Best Player Props
| Category | Player | Prop |
|---|---|---|
| Home Run | José Ramírez | To hit a HR |
| Strikeouts | Tanner Bibee | Under 5.5 |
| Total Bases | Steven Kwan | Over 1.5 |
| Total Bases | Luis Robert Jr. | Over 1.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Guardians hold an 8-2 lead in their season series against the White Sox.
- Cleveland is 25-14 against division opponents this year.
- Chicago is 18-31 against opponents from the AL Central.
White Sox vs Guardians Model Projection
Score Projection: White Sox 3 – Guardians 5
Win Probability: White Sox 37%, Guardians 63%
Final Thoughts
My best bet for this matchup between the White Sox and Guardians is for the game to go over the total of 7.5 runs. Martin Perez is likely to experience some ERA regression coming down the stretch this season. We should also see Bibee have his typical ups and downs. I’ll take this game to get to at least eight runs on the scoreboard on Friday night.
