Chicago White Sox VS Cleveland Guardians Betting Pick & Preview – 04/09/2024

Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Overview

• Date: April 9, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mike Soroka - White Sox
  • Logan Allen - Guardians
• Umpire:
• Run Line: White Sox 1.5 -115, Guardians -1.5 -105
• Money Line: White Sox 185, Guardians -215
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 -110

Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Chicago White Sox - 34%
• Cleveland Guardians - 66%

Projected Win %:

• Chicago White Sox - 35.36%
• Cleveland Guardians - 64.64%

Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Game Preview & Prediction

In a highly anticipated American League Central matchup, the Cleveland Guardians will host the Chicago White Sox at Progressive Field on April 9, 2024. The Guardians, currently the home team, are having a fantastic season with a record of 8-2, while the White Sox are struggling with a 1-9 record.

The Guardians are projected to start left-handed pitcher Logan Allen, who has been impressive this season. Allen has started two games and holds a perfect 2-0 record with an excellent ERA of 2.31. However, his peripheral indicator, xFIP, suggests that he may have been lucky and could regress in future performances.

On the other hand, the White Sox are projected to start right-handed pitcher Mike Soroka. Soroka has struggled this season, with a win-loss record of 0-1 and an ERA of 4.91. Similar to Allen, his peripheral indicators, including SIERA, xERA, and FIP, suggest that he may have been fortunate and could face challenges going forward.

In terms of offensive rankings, the Guardians have been performing well, ranking 12th in MLB and 14th in team batting average. However, they have struggled in the home run department, ranking last in the league. The White Sox, on the other hand, have had a tough time offensively, ranking 30th in MLB in both overall offense and team batting average.

When it comes to the bullpen, the Guardians have a slightly better ranking at 18th in MLB, while the White Sox rank 29th, indicating a significant disadvantage for the White Sox in this aspect of the game.

In terms of betting odds, the Guardians are heavily favored with a moneyline of -205, giving them an implied win probability of 65%. The White Sox, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +175 and an implied win probability of 35%.

Overall, the Guardians have the advantage in this game with their strong record, solid pitching from Logan Allen, and a more favorable offensive ranking. However, in baseball, anything can happen, and the White Sox will look to bounce back and prove themselves against their division rival. It should be an exciting matchup for fans and bettors alike.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Given that flyball batters hold a sizeable advantage over groundball pitchers, Mike Soroka and his 47.6% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a difficult position in today's outing being matched up with 0 opposing GB hitters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Nicky Lopez is an extreme groundball batter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Cleveland (#1-best of the day).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Chicago White Sox have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Yoan Moncada, Paul DeJong, Martin Maldonado).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

With 7 batters of the opposite hand in the opposing team's projected lineup, Logan Allen will have a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's outing.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Jose Ramirez has been cold recently, putting up a 0% Barrel% (an advanced metric to evaluate power) over the last two weeks.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 83 of their last 144 games (+19.85 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 72 of their last 130 games (+13.95 Units / 10% ROI)
• Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.15 Units / 21% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Chicago White Sox 3.83 vs Cleveland Guardians 4.95

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