Chicago White Sox VS Cleveland Guardians Betting Pick & Preview – 4/8/2024

Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Overview

• Date: April 8, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chad Kuhl - White Sox
  • Triston McKenzie - Guardians
• Run Line: White Sox 1.5 -120, Guardians -1.5 100
• Money Line: White Sox 190, Guardians -220
• Total (Over/Under):7.5 -110

Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Chicago White Sox - 33%
• Cleveland Guardians - 67%

Projected Win %:

• Chicago White Sox - 30.17%
• Cleveland Guardians - 69.83%

Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Game Preview & Prediction

In an American League Central matchup, the Cleveland Guardians are set to take on the Chicago White Sox at Progressive Field on April 8, 2024. The Guardians, with a record of 7-2, are having a great season, while the struggling White Sox hold a record of 1-8.

The Guardians are projected to start right-handed pitcher Triston McKenzie, who has started one game this year. McKenzie's Win/Loss record stands at 0-1 with an ERA of 10.80, which is less than ideal. However, his 6.49 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. McKenzie is expected to pitch around 5.8 innings, allowing an average of 2.2 earned runs and striking out 5.5 batters. However, he is projected to give up 4.7 hits and 1.3 walks on average, which is not favorable.

On the other side, the White Sox are projected to start right-handed pitcher Chad Kuhl. Kuhl is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. He is expected to pitch around 4.7 innings, allowing an average of 3.0 earned runs and striking out 2.9 batters. Kuhl's hits and walks projections are also unfavorable, with averages of 5.1 hits and 2.1 walks.

In terms of offense, the Guardians rank 12th in MLB and 14th in team batting average. However, they rank last in team home runs. On the other hand, the White Sox offense ranks last in MLB, both overall and in team batting average. Both teams have struggled in the power department, ranking low in home runs.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Guardians are considered a massive favorite for this game, with a projected win probability of 71%. The White Sox, on the other hand, are projected as a massive underdog with a win probability of 29%. The current odds also favor the Guardians, with a moneyline of -220 and an implied win probability of 66%. The White Sox, with a moneyline of +185, have an implied win probability of 34%.

Based on the projections, the Guardians are expected to score an average of 5.34 runs, while the White Sox are projected to score 3.54 runs. THE BAT X also suggests that the Guardians have a win probability that is 5% greater than the betting market suggests, indicating potential value in betting on the Guardians.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

The Cleveland Guardians have 7 hitters in the projected batting order that will hold the platoon advantage over Chad Kuhl in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Robbie Grossman is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Chicago White Sox bullpen grades out as the worst in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

The Cleveland Guardians infield defense projects as the best among all the teams on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Jose Ramirez pulls many of his flyballs (41.4% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 77 games at home (+21.55 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 80 of their last 146 games (+14.20 Units / 9% ROI)
• Braden Shewmake has not hit the Total Bases Over in any of his last 3 games (-3.70 Units / -100% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Chicago White Sox 3.58 vs Cleveland Guardians 5.28

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.