Chicago White Sox vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction – 5/14/2025

On May 14, 2025, the Cincinnati Reds will host the Chicago White Sox at Great American Ball Park in what promises to be an intriguing interleague matchup. The Reds have struggled this season with a record of 20-23, while the White Sox sit at a dismal 13-29. The teams faced off yesterday, with the White Sox securing a win, their second in a row.

Cincinnati is expected to start Nick Lodolo, who is currently ranked as the 85th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. Lodolo has been solid this season, posting a 3.23 ERA and a 3-3 record over 8 starts. However, his 4.04 xFIP suggests he may not sustain this performance level. He is a high-groundball pitcher, which could play to his advantage against a White Sox lineup that has shown minimal power, ranking 30th in home runs.

Opposing him will be Davis Martin, who has not found success this year, with a 1-4 record and a 4.01 ERA. However, his 6.16 xERA indicates he has been even less effective than his ERA suggests. Martin's low strikeout rate (15.2 K%) could be concerning against a Reds offense that has been prone to strikeouts, ranking 4th in MLB in that category.

Offensively, the Reds rank 13th overall, but their batting average is a troubling 21st. In contrast, the White Sox's offense has been the worst in the league, ranked 30th in both overall performance and batting average. The Reds are favored with a moneyline of -220, indicating a strong implied team total of 5.34 runs, while the White Sox sit at +190 with a low implied total of 3.66 runs. With Lodolo on the mound and the Reds’ recent momentum, they appear poised to capitalize on the White Sox's ongoing struggles.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Davis Martin's higher utilization percentage of his fastball this season (36.2 compared to 28.3% last season) is not ideal considering they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Extreme groundball hitters like Timothy Elko tend to be less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Nick Lodolo.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Lenyn Sosa has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the game's 8th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Nick Lodolo's fastball velocity has fallen 1.5 mph this year (92.6 mph) below where it was last season (94.1 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Gavin Lux is projected to bat 7th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 81% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Cincinnati Reds have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Elly De La Cruz, Tyler Stephenson, Matt McLain).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 39 games (+6.35 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 42 games (+8.75 Units / 18% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago White Sox 4.68, Cincinnati Reds 5.37

• Date: May 14, 2025
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Davis Martin - White Sox
  • Nick Lodolo - Reds

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