Chicago White Sox vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction – 5/13/2025

As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to face off against the Chicago White Sox on May 13, 2025, both teams find themselves struggling this season. The Reds hold a record of 20-22, marking them as below average, while the White Sox have an abysmal 12-29 record, sitting at the very bottom of the standings.

This matchup serves as the opener of a series between the two clubs, with both aiming to turn their fortunes around. In their last outing, the Reds displayed some offensive prowess, bolstering hopes for a turnaround.

Projected to start for the Reds is Andrew Abbott, a left-handed pitcher who comes into the game with a stellar ERA of 2.25, despite Power Rankings suggesting he is merely the 154th best starting pitcher in MLB. Abbott’s ability to limit earned runs is notable, although his projected performance today indicates he may allow 3.0 earned runs, which is concerning. The White Sox will counter with Jonathan Cannon, whose performance this season has not inspired confidence—he ranks among the worst pitchers in the league, sporting a 4.09 ERA.

Interestingly, Abbott's pitching style as a high-flyball pitcher may play into his favor against a White Sox lineup that has managed only 29 home runs this season, ranking them 3rd least in MLB. On the other hand, Cannon's low strikeout rate will be put to the test against a Reds offense that has the 4th most strikeouts in the league.

Betting lines favor the Reds significantly, with a moneyline of -195. Given the Reds’ offensive ranking at 13th overall and their high implied team total of 5.47 runs, this appears to be a favorable matchup for them to improve their record against a struggling White Sox squad.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Jonathan Cannon was on point in his previous GS and gave up 0 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Luis Robert Jr. has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 95.5-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal 88.1-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Lenyn Sosa has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.5%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Andrew Abbott is an extreme flyball pitcher (40.4% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #1 HR venue in the majors in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Extreme flyball hitters like Elly De La Cruz tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Jonathan Cannon.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Cincinnati Reds have 4 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Matt McLain, Tyler Stephenson, Elly De La Cruz, Will Benson).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.30 Units / 49% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.10 Units / 38% ROI)
• Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 10 games (+4.70 Units / 47% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago White Sox 5.12, Cincinnati Reds 5.36

• Date: May 13, 2025
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jonathan Cannon - White Sox
  • Andrew Abbott - Reds

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