Chicago White Sox vs Cincinnati Reds Pick – 5/15/2025

On May 15, 2025, the Cincinnati Reds will host the Chicago White Sox at Great American Ball Park for the third game of their series. The Reds are currently struggling with a record of 20-24, while the White Sox sit at a dismal 14-29. Both teams are having tough seasons, but the Reds have shown some potential, particularly with their offense ranking 14th overall in MLB, despite a below-average batting average of 21st.

The Reds are projected to start Nick Martinez, who is rated as the 72nd best starting pitcher, indicating he is above average despite a 1-4 record this season. Martinez has an ERA of 4.23 and a FIP of 3.36, suggesting he may have been unlucky and could improve. He is projected to pitch 5.5 innings, allowing around 2.7 earned runs, while striking out 4.8 batters.

On the other side, Bryse Wilson will take the mound for the White Sox. He has struggled significantly this season, with a 0-1 record and an ERA of 4.88, and his projections indicate he may face challenges against a Reds offense that ranks 4th in strikeouts but also draws walks at a high rate. Wilson's high walk rate of 10.3% could spell trouble against a patient Reds lineup.

With the Reds favored at -220, the projections suggest they have a solid chance to capitalize on the White Sox's struggles, especially with their strong offensive capabilities and Martinez's potential for a bounce-back performance.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Bryse Wilson is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.5% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #1 HR venue in MLB in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Andrew Vaughn has been hot of late, cracking 2 long-balls over the last 7 days.

• Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox' bullpen profiles as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams in the game.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Nick Martinez has relied on his secondary pitches 5.7% more often this year (63.9%) than he did last year (58.2%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Hitters such as Elly De La Cruz with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Bryse Wilson who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Spencer Steer pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.3% — 92nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.30 Units / 36% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 43 games (+9.90 Units / 20% ROI)
• Santiago Espinal has hit the Singles Under in his last 4 games (+4.75 Units / 104% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago White Sox 4.81, Cincinnati Reds 5.97

• Date: May 15, 2025
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bryse Wilson - White Sox
  • Nick Martinez - Reds

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.