Chicago White Sox vs Chicago Cubs Prediction – 5/16/2025

The Chicago Cubs will host the Chicago White Sox in an interleague matchup at Wrigley Field on May 16, 2025. This game is crucial as the Cubs, currently holding a record of 25-19, are enjoying a solid season while the White Sox languish at 14-30, marking a significant gap in performance. In their last outing, both teams faced defeat—on May 14, the Cubs lost 3-1, and the White Sox fell heavily with a 7-1 loss.

Cade Horton is projected to take the mound for the Cubs, having recently made only one start this season with a Win/Loss record of 1-0 but posting a troubling ERA of 6.75. However, advanced projections suggest that Horton has been unfortunate and might improve, indicating a potential silver lining for the Cubs. Facing him will be Shane Smith, who has had a decent season with a low ERA of 2.08. Yet, projections indicate he might be due for some regression, which could benefit the Cubs' potent offense.

The Cubs’ lineup is ranked 4th in MLB for offensive strength and is 3rd in home runs, showcasing their ability to generate runs effectively. This contrasts sharply with the White Sox, who rank last in offense and batting average, struggling to make an impact at the plate. With a high implied team total of 6.87 runs for the Cubs and a Game Total set at 11.5 runs, the expectations lean heavily in favor of Chicago.

Cade Horton’s high flyball rate may work in his favor, as the White Sox possess minimal power to capitalize on such opportunities. This matchup presents a clear advantage for the Cubs, especially considering their offensive prowess combined with potential improvements from their starting pitcher.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Shane Smith has been given less leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 9.7 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Whalloping 2 homers over the past 7 days, Andrew Vaughn has been on fire recently.

• Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

The Chicago White Sox bullpen profiles as the worst in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Cade Horton in the 76th percentile when assessing his strikeout talent.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Typically, batters like Jon Berti who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Shane Smith.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Kyle Tucker pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.4% — 89th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 5th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 38 games (+7.55 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 44 games (+8.90 Units / 18% ROI)
• Dansby Swanson has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+6.00 Units / 20% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago White Sox 5.6, Chicago Cubs 6.59

• Date: May 16, 2025
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Shane Smith - White Sox
  • Cade Horton - Cubs

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