Chicago White Sox vs Chicago Cubs Pick – 5/18/2025

The Chicago Cubs will host the Chicago White Sox at Wrigley Field on May 18, 2025, for the third game of their interleague series. The Cubs are currently riding high with a strong record of 27-19, while the White Sox are struggling significantly, sitting at 14-32. The Cubs' last game saw them secure a convincing 7-3 victory over the White Sox on May 17, and they look to continue that momentum today.

Colin Rea is projected to take the mound for the Cubs. Despite being ranked as the 192nd best starting pitcher in MLB, his impressive 2.48 ERA indicates he has performed well this season, boasting a perfect 3-0 record in six starts. However, his 4.05 xFIP suggests he might have been a bit fortunate and could face challenges going forward. Rea's projection of allowing only 2.1 earned runs today is a positive sign for the Cubs.

On the other hand, Jonathan Cannon will start for the White Sox. With a 3.60 ERA, Cannon has shown some competence, but his 4.72 xFIP indicates he too has had his share of luck. His last outing on May 13 was noteworthy, as he went six innings without allowing any earned runs. However, his overall performance has been inconsistent, reflected in his 2-4 record this season.

The Cubs' offense ranks 4th best in MLB, showcasing their ability to generate runs, especially with their power hitting, ranking 3rd in home runs. In contrast, the White Sox offense has struggled significantly, ranking dead last in MLB. Given the disparity in team performance, the Cubs are favored heavily in this matchup, with a projected team total of 4.68 runs compared to the White Sox's low 2.82 runs. The Game Total is set at a modest 7.5 runs, reflecting the expected dominance of the Cubs' lineup against Cannon.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Jonathan Cannon has gone to his slider 6.4% less often this season (14.9%) than he did last season (21.3%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Andrew Vaughn has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (94% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the batting order today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox' bullpen ranks as the worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Colin Rea's 2202-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 18th percentile among all starting pitchers.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Carson Kelly has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 91.1-mph dropping to 84.5-mph over the past 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Kyle Tucker pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.6% — 90th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league's 5th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 40 games (+9.55 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 24 games (+9.75 Units / 37% ROI)
• Miguel Vargas has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+6.85 Units / 26% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago White Sox 3.6, Chicago Cubs 4.46

• Date: May 18, 2025
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jonathan Cannon - White Sox
  • Colin Rea - Cubs

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