Chicago White Sox vs Chicago Cubs Pick – 5/17/2025

The Chicago Cubs welcome the Chicago White Sox for the second game of their interleague series at Wrigley Field on May 17, 2025. The Cubs are currently enjoying a solid season, sitting at 26-19, while the White Sox are struggling mightily with a record of 14-31. Yesterday, the Cubs were victorious in a high-scoring affair, showcasing their potent offense against a struggling White Sox pitching staff.

Matthew Boyd is projected to take the mound for the Cubs, and his performance this season speaks to his capability as a reliable starter. With a 3-2 record and an impressive ERA of 2.78, Boyd ranks as the 47th best starting pitcher in MLB. Expect him to go around 5.4 innings while allowing about 2.2 earned runs. His ability to generate strikeouts—projected at 6.2 today—will be crucial against a weak White Sox lineup that ranks 30th in MLB offensive production.

On the opposing side, Sean Burke is set to start for the White Sox. Unfortunately for him, his xFIP of 5.66 suggests that he has been fortunate to post a 4.15 ERA. Burke struggles with controlling the game, evidenced by his high walk rate of 11.5%. With the Cubs’ offense ranked 4th overall and excelling in power—3rd in home runs with 64 this season—they are primed to capitalize on Burke's high-flyball tendencies.

Despite a shaky bullpen ranking 27th in MLB, the Cubs' offensive firepower gives them a significant edge, making them massive favorites with a moneyline of -270. On the other hand, the White Sox's offensive woes and their own poor bullpen rank of 29th amplify their challenges. As the game total sits at a high 10.0 runs, bettors should look for the Cubs to continue their strong offensive performance against a faltering opponent.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Sean Burke's 2538-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 97th percentile out of all SPs.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Extreme groundball hitters like Timothy Elko generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Matthew Boyd.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Chicago White Sox bullpen grades out as the 2nd-worst in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Matthew Boyd is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.9% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #22 HR venue in Major League Baseball in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Pete Crow-Armstrong is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 87% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Kyle Tucker pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.4% — 89th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball's 5th-deepest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• Lenyn Sosa has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 10 away games (+6.40 Units / 43% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago White Sox 4.01, Chicago Cubs 5.19

• Date: May 17, 2025
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Sean Burke - White Sox
  • Matthew Boyd - Cubs

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