Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 9/7/2024

• Date: September 7, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Garrett Crochet - White Sox
  • Cooper Criswell - Red Sox

Betting Odds

Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

As the Boston Red Sox prepare to face the Chicago White Sox on September 7, 2024, they come into the game with a solid standing, boasting a record of 71-70. Meanwhile, the White Sox have struggled significantly this season, sitting at 32-110. This matchup features a stark contrast in performance, making it a crucial game for the Red Sox as they aim to secure their position in the standings.

In their last encounter on September 6, the Red Sox secured a 3-1 victory over the White Sox, continuing their trend of solid play against a struggling opponent. The Red Sox will look to build on this momentum with right-handed pitcher Cooper Criswell, who has had an average season with a 4.14 ERA and a 5-4 record across 18 starts. However, he ranks as the 187th best starting pitcher in MLB, which raises concerns given the Red Sox's aspirations.

On the mound for the White Sox will be Garrett Crochet, who has been impressive with a 3.61 ERA, ranking him 3rd among MLB starters. Although he has had a challenging season with a 6-10 record, his xFIP suggests he has been unlucky and could perform better moving forward.

The Red Sox offense ranks 6th in the league, showcasing their ability to score runs, while the White Sox offense is at the bottom, ranking 30th. This disparity in offensive production could play a significant role in the outcome of the game.

The leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, gives the Red Sox a favorable edge, projecting them to score an average of 4.65 runs, while the White Sox are projected for 4.32 runs. With the Red Sox's potent lineup and Crochet's elite strikeout ability, they may have a significant advantage in this matchup.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Garrett Crochet’s fastball velocity over his last 3 games started (97.5 mph) has been considerably faster than than his seasonal rate (96.5 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.319) suggests that Lenyn Sosa has had bad variance on his side this year with his .241 actual wOBA.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

The Chicago White Sox bullpen projects as the worst in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Cooper Criswell has averaged 13.4 outs per game per started this year, placing in the 3rd percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Danny Jansen has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (61% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th in the batting order in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Danny Jansen pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.4% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 24 games (+5.55 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 36 of their last 67 away games (+6.00 Units / 8% ROI)
• Luis Robert has hit the Runs Under in 32 of his last 44 games (+12.90 Units / 19% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 4.26 vs Boston Red Sox 4.58

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