Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox Prediction – 4/20/2025

Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox will host the Chicago White Sox on April 20, 2025, in a matchup that could further highlight the disparities between these two teams. Currently, Boston sits at 12-10, enjoying an above-average start to the season, while Chicago struggles at 4-16, marking one of the worst starts in MLB. Last night, the Red Sox showcased their offensive prowess once again, securing a dominating victory over the White Sox.

On the mound, Boston will rely on Tanner Houck, who, despite a 0-2 record and an abysmal ERA of 9.16 this season, is ranked as the 55th best starting pitcher in MLB per the leading MLB projection system. While his ERA is concerning, his xFIP of 4.89 suggests he may have been unlucky and could bounce back against a weak Chicago offense that ranks 30th overall. Houck's high groundball rate of 50% should work well against a White Sox squad lacking power, having hit only 14 home runs to date.

Chicago will counter with Sean Burke, who has struggled even more, holding a 1-3 record and a 7.56 ERA. His projections indicate he may pitch approximately 4.7 innings, likely allowing about 2.9 earned runs, further complicating the White Sox's uphill battle.

Offensively, the Red Sox rank 11th overall, with a particularly strong batting average ranking of 9th, while the White Sox sit at the bottom of the league in multiple categories, including a 30th place batting average. With the Red Sox's bullpen also pulling solid rankings at 6th best, they seem poised to take advantage of the White Sox's struggles.

With Boston favored heavily at -270 on the moneyline, they are projected to score around 5.56 runs, while Chicago's low implied total of 3.44 runs reflects the uphill challenge they face. As the Red Sox aim to build on their recent success, today’s matchup promises to further expose the White Sox's inadequacies.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Sean Burke has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his ERA since the start of last season; his 4.29 rate is considerably lower than his 5.22 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Luis Robert Jr.'s average exit velocity has dropped off this year; his 90-mph EV last year has dropped off to 82.8-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

It may be best to expect improved performance for the Chicago White Sox offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 2nd-unluckiest offense in the game this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

The Boston Red Sox outfield defense projects as the 3rd-strongest out of all the teams in action today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Typically, bats like Alex Bregman who hit a lot of flyballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Sean Burke.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Boston Red Sox' bullpen ranks as the 6th-best among all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+3.90 Units / 50% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.60 Units / 35% ROI)
• Trevor Story has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.35 Units / 48% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago White Sox 4, Boston Red Sox 5.28

• Date: April 20, 2025
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Sean Burke - White Sox
  • Tanner Houck - Red Sox

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