Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Pick – 5/31/2025

As the struggling Baltimore Orioles host the Chicago White Sox on May 31, 2025, both teams are looking to break out of their disappointing seasons. The Orioles currently sit at 20-36, while the White Sox are even worse at 18-39. In their last matchup, the Orioles managed to pick up a win, but both teams are still far from contention.

On the mound, Dean Kremer is projected to start for the Orioles. Although Kremer holds a 4-5 record and a 5.02 ERA this season, he has shown signs of being unlucky with a 4.45 xFIP, suggesting he might perform better than his current stats indicate. Facing him is Davis Martin, who has struggled mightily this year with a 2-5 record and a strong 3.45 ERA that may not reflect his true performance level, as his 4.38 xFIP points to potential regression.

The matchup presents an interesting dynamic. Kremer is a high-flyball pitcher, which could work to his advantage against a White Sox offense that ranks as the 28th best in MLB and has hit just 46 home runs this season, the 4th least in the league. Additionally, Martin’s low strikeout rate (14.6 K%) could play into the hands of a high-strikeout Orioles lineup that ranks 6th in strikeouts.

In terms of offensive outlook, the Orioles rank 20th in MLB offensively, but they do have power, sitting 10th in home runs. The projections for this game give Baltimore a high implied team total of 5.14 runs, indicating confidence in their ability to capitalize on Martin’s low-strikeout approach. Meanwhile, the White Sox's projected team total of 3.86 runs points to more challenges ahead, especially given their poor overall performance at the plate.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Davis Martin is an extreme groundball pitcher (43.3% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Oriole Park at Camden Yards — the #4 HR venue among all stadiums — today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Josh Rojas has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.2-mph dropping to 84.6-mph over the past 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Chicago White Sox bullpen projects as the 2nd-worst in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Dean Kremer's four-seamer usage has decreased by 5.9% from last season to this one (32.1% to 26.2%) .

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Extreme flyball bats like Jackson Holliday generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Davis Martin.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Heston Kjerstad has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.1%) but may find it hard to clear the game's 3rd-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 34 games (+8.45 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 32 games (+9.00 Units / 27% ROI)
• Adley Rutschman has hit the RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+7.05 Units / 33% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago White Sox 4.5, Baltimore Orioles 5.32

• Date: May 31, 2025
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Davis Martin - White Sox
  • Dean Kremer - Orioles

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