Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Pick – 5/30/2025

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to face the Chicago White Sox on May 30, 2025, both teams find themselves in the midst of disappointing seasons. Baltimore's record stands at 19-36, while Chicago trails closely with an 18-38 mark. This matchup marks the first of the series between the two struggling squads. In their most recent outings, the Orioles suffered a tough loss, underscoring the uphill battle they face this season.

Projected to take the mound for the Orioles is Zach Eflin, who has had an uneven year but remains a better option than his counterpart. Eflin ranks as the 83rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics, showcasing his above-average capabilities despite a modest 5.40 ERA. His xFIP of 4.68 suggests he may have been unlucky and could improve as the season progresses. Eflin's average projection of 5.9 innings pitched with 2.5 earned runs allowed offers a glimmer of hope for Baltimore, especially against a White Sox lineup that has struggled to generate power, ranking 27th in the league in home runs.

On the other side, Chicago's Sean Burke is expected to start, and he has been less than impressive this season. With a 4.33 ERA and a high xFIP of 5.55, Burke's projections indicate he may not fare well against the Orioles’ offense, which, although ranked 20th overall, is poised to exploit his control issues. Burke’s low strikeout rate of 16.2% puts him at a disadvantage against a Baltimore lineup that ranks 6th in strikeouts.

Betting markets are reflecting this sentiment, with the Orioles positioned as the favorites, marking a significant opportunity for them to capitalize on their strengths against a weak White Sox team.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

With 6 bats who bat from the other side in the opposing team's projected lineup, Sean Burke will be in a tough position while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Baltimore's #3-ranked outfield defense of all teams today poses a formidable challenge for Joshua Palacios, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Miguel Vargas hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.8% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

The Baltimore Orioles infield defense profiles as the 3rd-strongest among every team in action today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Cedric Mullins has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (61% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the lineup in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Baltimore Orioles have been the 3rd-unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better going forward

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 34 games (+8.45 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 33 games (+11.25 Units / 31% ROI)
• Ramon Urias has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 48% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago White Sox 4.14, Baltimore Orioles 5.94

• Date: May 30, 2025
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Sean Burke - White Sox
  • Zach Eflin - Orioles

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