Chicago White Sox vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 6/14/2024

Chicago White Sox vs Arizona Diamondbacks Details

• Date: June 14, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Flexen - White Sox
  • Ryne Nelson - D-Backs

Betting Odds

Chicago White Sox vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

The Arizona Diamondbacks host the Chicago White Sox on June 14, 2024, at Chase Field in what shapes up to be an intriguing interleague matchup. With a record of 33-36, the D-Backs are having a below-average season. However, they still sit in a much better position than the White Sox, who have a dreadful 18-52 record, making them the worst team in the league this season. The D-Backs are favored with a moneyline of -175, giving them an implied win probability of 61%.

Arizona is projected to start Ryne Nelson, a right-handed pitcher with a 3-5 record and an unsightly 5.96 ERA. Despite these numbers, his 4.76 xFIP suggests he’s been a bit unlucky and might perform better moving forward. Nelson projects to pitch an average of 5.8 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs, 6.3 hits, and 1.2 walks while striking out 3.9 batters.

On the flip side, the White Sox will counter with Chris Flexen, who also struggles on the mound. Flexen holds a 2-5 record with a 5.06 ERA. His underlying stats, including a 4.40 xERA, indicate he’s been slightly unlucky as well. Flexen projects to pitch 4.6 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs, 5.4 hits, and 1.6 walks while striking out just 3.2 batters.

Offensively, the D-Backs have a significant advantage. They rank 10th in MLB in overall offensive talent, including 8th in team batting average. Their offense is powered by Ketel Marte, who has been on fire over the last week, hitting .333 with a 1.207 OPS, including 2 home runs and 2 stolen bases.

Conversely, the White Sox offense ranks last in MLB in both overall talent and team batting average. Paul DeJong has been a rare bright spot for Chicago, hitting .348 with a 1.226 OPS and 3 home runs over the last week.

With the D-Backs holding a considerable edge in both offense and pitching matchups, they are rightly favored in this game. Expect Arizona to exploit Chicago’s weaknesses and make a strong push to improve their standing in the league.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Chris Flexen has recorded 14.4 outs per start this year, ranking in the 14th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Andrew Benintendi's true offensive ability to be a .309, suggesting that he has been unlucky this year given the .084 disparity between that figure and his actual .225 wOBA.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

The Chicago White Sox have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Luis Robert, Paul DeJong, Korey Lee).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Ryne Nelson's cut-fastball rate has risen by 9.2% from last year to this one (14.8% to 24%) .

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Eugenio Suarez has a ton of pop (93rd percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (28.9% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Chris Flexen doesn't generate many whiffs (17th percentile K%) — great news for Suarez.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

The 6.4% Barrel% of the Arizona Diamondbacks makes them the #28 squad in the game since the start of last season by this metric.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 26 games at home (+8.80 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 24 games (+9.40 Units / 35% ROI)
• Christian Walker has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.55 Units / 29% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 4.34 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 5.39

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