Chicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays Pick & Prediction – 5/20/2024

Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 20, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Erick Fedde - White Sox
  • Jose Berrios - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

On May 20, 2024, the Toronto Blue Jays will face off against the Chicago White Sox at Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays, who are currently having a tough season with a record of 20-25, will be looking to bounce back and secure a win on their home turf. The White Sox, with a dismal record of 14-33, are also struggling and will be hoping to turn their season around.

In this American League matchup, the Blue Jays are projected to start right-handed pitcher Jose Berrios. Berrios, ranked as the #122 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, has a decent 4-3 win/loss record this season. With an impressive ERA of 2.82, Berrios has been a reliable force on the mound. However, his 4.24 xFIP suggests that he has been lucky this year and may see a decline in performance going forward.

On the other side, the White Sox are expected to start right-handed pitcher Erick Fedde. Fedde, ranked as the #76 best starting pitcher in MLB, has been in great form this season with a spotless 4-0 record and an excellent ERA of 2.60. Despite his impressive numbers, his 3.59 xFIP indicates that he may face some regression in his performance moving forward.

This game marks the first meeting between these two teams in the series. In their last game, the Blue Jays emerged victorious against the Rays with a 5-2 score. The White Sox, on the other hand, suffered a 7-2 defeat against the Yankees. Based on recent performances, both teams have had their fair share of success and disappointment.

The Blue Jays offense ranks as the 24th best in MLB this season. However, they boast the 5th best team batting average, which indicates their potential to produce runs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been a standout performer for the Blue Jays this season, leading the team with his impressive hitting.

The White Sox offense, on the other hand, ranks as the worst in MLB, struggling to generate runs consistently. Gavin Sheets has been their best hitter this season, providing sparks of brilliance amidst their offensive struggles.

According to current odds, the Blue Jays are the clear favorites with an implied win probability of 64%. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, also projects the Blue Jays to come out on top with a 64% win probability. The Blue Jays have a higher implied team total of 4.35 runs, suggesting that they are expected to have a strong offensive performance.

With the White Sox as underdogs, carrying a 36% implied win probability, they face an uphill battle against the Blue Jays. THE BAT X projects them with a 36% win probability as well, indicating the challenges they will face in this matchup.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Erick Fedde will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against 6 opposing bats in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Andrew Benintendi's 3% Barrel% (an advanced stat to evaluate power) is in the 7th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox' bullpen ranks as the 7th-worst among all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Out of every team in action today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

This season, there has been a decline in Danny Jansen's speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 27.12 ft/sec last year to 26.37 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 93rd percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 10th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 42 games (+7.20 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 22 away games (+4.40 Units / 17% ROI)
• Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.40 Units / 37% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 3.71 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.73

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