Chicago White Sox at Texas Rangers Pick For 7/24/2024

Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers Details

• Date: July 24, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Flexen - White Sox
  • Nathan Eovaldi - Rangers

Betting Odds

Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

As the Texas Rangers prepare to host the Chicago White Sox on July 24, 2024, at Globe Life Field, this American League matchup presents a stark contrast in team performance. The Rangers, sitting at 49-52, are having an average season, while the White Sox, at a dismal 27-76, are enduring a terrible campaign that includes the worst offense in MLB, as per the advanced-stat Power Rankings.

On the mound, the Rangers have the upper hand with Nathan Eovaldi, who sports a solid 3.36 ERA and a 6-4 record over 17 starts. Despite his luck indicated by a higher xERA of 3.98, Eovaldi projects well for the game, with a forecast of 6.3 innings pitched and 6.4 strikeouts. His ability to induce ground balls (49 GB%) and limit walks (6.5 BB%) aligns well against a White Sox lineup that lacks power and patience at the plate.

On the flip side, the White Sox will counter with Chris Flexen, who has struggled mightily this season. Flexen's 5.22 ERA and 2-9 record over 19 starts paint a bleak picture. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, forecasts Flexen to allow 3.0 earned runs over 5.1 innings, along with a low strikeout projection of 3.7. This could spell trouble against a Rangers offense that, while ranked 24th overall, still shows flashes of power with a 17th place in team home runs.

Moreover, the Rangers' bullpen, ranked 10th, stands in sharp contrast to the White Sox's bullpen, which is dead last in MLB. This disparity further tilts the scales in favor of Texas.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Chris Flexen has tallied 15.1 outs per game per started this year, grading out in the 25th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Eloy Jimenez has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 9.1% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% over the past two weeks.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Tommy Pham hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 94th percentile) and will be challenged by the game's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Nathan Eovaldi's high utilization percentage of his secondary pitches (63.8% this year) should work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Marcus Semien has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.9-mph dropping to 82.9-mph over the last 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Texas Rangers have been the 3rd-unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress the rest of the season

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 82 games (+14.25 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 37 games (+10.65 Units / 26% ROI)
• Adolis Garcia has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.65 Units / 48% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 3.55 vs Texas Rangers 5.14

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