Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners Best Bet – 6/13/2024

Chicago White Sox vs Seattle Mariners Details

• Date: June 13, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Garrett Crochet - White Sox
  • Luis Castillo - Mariners

Betting Odds

Chicago White Sox vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

As the Seattle Mariners host the Chicago White Sox at T-Mobile Park on June 13, 2024, these teams are at opposite ends of the American League standings. The Mariners, with a 40-30 record, are enjoying a strong season, while the White Sox are struggling significantly at 17-52. This matchup features the fourth game in the series between these two teams, with the Mariners claiming a narrow 2-1 victory yesterday.

Luis Castillo is slated to start for Seattle, bringing his solid 3.35 ERA and a notable performance in spite of a 5-7 win/loss record. Castillo’s advanced metrics suggest an interesting clash with the White Sox’s offense. He is a high-flyball pitcher (40% FB rate) up against a Chicago lineup that lacks power, ranking 25th in home runs this year. This could play to Castillo’s strength, reducing the risk of costly long balls.

Chicago counters with Garrett Crochet, who has been one of the few bright spots in their dismal season. Sporting a 3.33 ERA and an impressive 2.49 xFIP, Crochet has been unlucky this year and could outperform his stats moving forward. His elite strikeout rate (34.3%) faces a Seattle offense that ranks 1st in strikeouts, presenting a potential advantage for the southpaw.

Offensively, the Mariners have been inconsistent. They rank 23rd overall but have shown decent power with the 8th-most home runs in the league. Julio Rodriguez leads the Mariners in batting average (.268) and stolen bases (16), while Mitch Garver has been hot over the past week with two homers and a 1.222 OPS.

On the other hand, the White Sox rank last in team batting average and overall offense. Despite this, Paul DeJong has been a standout performer, especially recently, hitting three home runs with a 1.110 OPS over the last week.

Both bullpens are among the worst in the league, with Seattle's ranked 27th and Chicago's 24th in advanced-stat Power Rankings. The game’s low total of 6.5 runs reflects the dominance expected from the starting pitchers.

The Mariners are currently favorites with a -165 Moneyline, implying a 60% win probability, which aligns with THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. Given the significant disparity in team performance this season, Seattle appears set to continue their winning ways against the struggling White Sox.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Garrett Crochet is projected to strikeout 7.4 hitters in this game, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Gavin Sheets can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox' bullpen grades out as the 7th-worst out of all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Luis Castillo has gone to his fastball a lot this year, though: 61.7% of the time, grading out in the 100th percentile.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

As it relates to his batting average, J.P. Crawford has experienced some negative variance this year. His .220 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .255.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Mitch Garver pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.6% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 28 games at home (+11.00 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 24 games (+7.15 Units / 27% ROI)
• Andrew Vaughn has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+10.10 Units / 112% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 3.03 vs Seattle Mariners 3.5

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