Chicago White Sox at San Francisco Giants Prediction For 8/20/2024

• Date: August 20, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Davis Martin - White Sox
  • Robbie Ray - Giants

Betting Odds

Chicago White Sox vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

As the San Francisco Giants prepare to face off against the Chicago White Sox on August 20, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting seasons. The Giants hold a record of 63-63, while the White Sox are struggling significantly at 30-95. This matchup is pivotal for the Giants as they look to gain ground in a competitive Wild Card race.

In their last game, the Giants got the better of the White Sox, beating them 5-3 on Monday night. The Giants are projected to start Robbie Ray, a left-handed pitcher who, despite a mediocre 2-2 record and a concerning ERA of 6.00, has shown signs of being unlucky this season, as indicated by his 4.26 xFIP. Ray is expected to pitch around 6.1 innings, allowing an average of 2.4 earned runs and striking out 7.4 batters, which bodes well against a weak White Sox offense.

Davis Martin, the White Sox's right-handed starter, has a solid ERA of 3.00 but has only started three games this year and carries a 0-1 record. His projections suggest he may struggle against the Giants' patient lineup, which ranks 6th in MLB for walks. The Giants’ offense, while average overall at 14th in MLB, may exploit Martin's control issues, especially given the White Sox's low walk rate.

With a strong bullpen ranked 1st in MLB, the Giants have an advantage late in the game. The current odds favor the Giants significantly with a moneyline of -240, reflecting their strong position in this matchup against a struggling White Sox team. The Game Total is set at an average 8.0 runs, indicating a potentially low-scoring affair, especially given the lack of power from the White Sox, who rank 28th in home runs.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Davis Martin's high usage rate of his secondary pitches (71.1% since the start of last season) ought to work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Corey Julks is projected to hit 8th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 52% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox' bullpen ranks as the worst out of all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

In his last GS, Robbie Ray gave up a whopping 5 earned runs.

• A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

Michael Conforto has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.4-mph dropping to 72.1-mph in the past week's worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Heliot Ramos has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 32 games (+6.45 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 27 away games (+7.75 Units / 24% ROI)
• Tyler Fitzgerald has hit the Home Runs Over in 12 of his last 30 games (+50.00 Units / 167% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 3.98 vs San Francisco Giants 4.97

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.