Chicago White Sox at San Diego Padres Pick & Prediction – 9/22/2024

• Date: September 22, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Sean Burke - White Sox
  • Yu Darvish - Padres

Betting Odds

Chicago White Sox vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

As the San Diego Padres host the Chicago White Sox on September 22, 2024, the contrast between the two teams couldn't be more pronounced. The Padres, with an impressive 89-66 record, are in the thick of the playoff race, while the White Sox, languishing at 36-119, have long been out of contention. This interleague matchup at Petco Park marks the third game of the series, with the Padres keen to assert their dominance.

Yu Darvish takes the mound for San Diego, bringing his above-average credentials as the 66th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. With a solid 6-3 record and a 3.21 ERA, Darvish has been a key contributor to the Padres' success. However, his 3.97 xFIP suggests he's benefited from some good fortune this season, and he might face challenges ahead. Nevertheless, facing a White Sox lineup that ranks dead last in batting average and home runs, Darvish is poised to exploit their weaknesses, especially given his tendency to induce flyballs.

On the other side, Sean Burke will start for the White Sox. Despite a promising 2.25 ERA in his lone start, his 4.19 xFIP indicates he has been lucky so far. With projections suggesting he'll struggle against the Padres' potent offense—ranked 5th overall and 1st in batting average—Burke faces a daunting task.

The Padres' offensive firepower, led by Fernando Tatis Jr. who has been on a tear over the last week, should provide ample support for Darvish. Meanwhile, the White Sox's Lenyn Sosa has been a bright spot, but the team's overall struggles make them heavy underdogs. With the Padres' bullpen ranked 2nd and the White Sox's ranked 28th, San Diego holds the edge in nearly every facet of the game. The leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, reinforces this, giving the Padres a 73% chance of victory. Expect the Padres to capitalize on their advantages and continue their push toward the postseason.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Sean Burke was on point in his last GS and allowed 2 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Andrew Vaughn's average exit velocity has dropped off of late; his 90.3-mph seasonal figure has dropped off to 83.2-mph in the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Miguel Vargas hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 92nd percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Yu Darvish has tallied 15 outs per GS this year, placing in the 23rd percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Jurickson Profar has been lucky this year, compiling a .366 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .323 — a .043 gap.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The San Diego Padres (18.5 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 2nd-least strikeout-prone set of batters of all teams on the slate today.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 51 games (+13.05 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 37 away games (+7.30 Units / 17% ROI)
• Xander Bogaerts has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 19 games (+29.00 Units / 153% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 3.42 vs San Diego Padres 5.29

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.