Chicago White Sox at San Diego Padres Best Bet – 9/20/2024

• Date: September 20, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Garrett Crochet - White Sox
  • Joe Musgrove - Padres

Betting Odds

Chicago White Sox vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

September 20, 2024, is set for an intriguing interleague clash as the San Diego Padres host the Chicago White Sox at Petco Park. The Padres, boasting a solid record of 87-66, are eyeing a playoff spot, while the White Sox have endured a dismal season at 36-117. San Diego has been a powerhouse, ranking 1st in MLB in team batting average and 5th in overall offense, which could spell trouble for Chicago’s beleaguered squad.

On the mound for the Padres is right-hander Joe Musgrove, who's proven effective with a 4.23 ERA but is suggested by his 4.76 xERA to have been somewhat fortunate this season. Despite this, his ability to limit walks is a plus against a White Sox lineup that ranks 2nd in the league for the fewest walks. Musgrove's projected to allow only 1.8 earned runs, showcasing his capability to manage games effectively.

Facing him is Chicago's Garrett Crochet, an elite pitcher by the advanced-stat Power Rankings but hampered by a 6-12 record. His 3.78 ERA is good, although his xFIP of 2.48 indicates he's been unlucky and could improve. However, he faces a Padres offense that leads MLB in avoiding strikeouts, potentially neutralizing his key strength.

The Padres' bullpen, ranked 2nd best, looks to maintain their edge over Chicago’s last-place bullpen. With Manny Machado hitting .385 with 10 RBIs over the last week, the Padres' lineup is primed to exploit Crochet's struggles. Meanwhile, Andrew Vaughn has been a bright spot for the White Sox, hitting .333 recently, but it might not be enough to counterbalance San Diego’s overall firepower.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, favors the Padres with a 68% win probability, aligning with their status as -235 betting favorites. With the White Sox's implied team total at a mere 2.80 runs, all signs point towards a likely Padres victory.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

With 7 batters who bat from the other side in the opposing team's projected lineup, Garrett Crochet will have a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

From last season to this one, Lenyn Sosa's flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 93.2 mph to 90 mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The worst projected batting order on the slate today in terms of overall offensive skill belongs to the Chicago White Sox.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Over his last 3 outings, Joe Musgrove has seen a significant rise in his fastball spin rate: from 2631 rpm over the whole season to 2709 rpm lately.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jurickson Profar's true offensive skill to be a .323, indicating that he has had some very good luck this year given the .044 difference between that figure and his actual .367 wOBA.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres' bullpen grades out as the 2nd-best among all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 60 of their last 98 games (+12.30 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 29 away games (+5.15 Units / 16% ROI)
• Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+12.20 Units / 68% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 3.31 vs San Diego Padres 4.33

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