Chicago White Sox at Oakland Athletics Prediction For 8/7/2024

Chicago White Sox vs Oakland Athletics Details

• Date: August 7, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Davis Martin - White Sox
  • Joey Estes - Athletics

Betting Odds

Chicago White Sox vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs Oakland Athletics Betting Preview

As the Oakland Athletics prepare to host the Chicago White Sox on August 7, 2024, both teams are struggling significantly this season. The Athletics sit at 47-67, while the White Sox hold an abysmal 27-88 record. This matchup is crucial for both teams, though neither is expected to contend for a playoff spot anytime soon.

In their last game, the Athletics faced a tough loss, further cementing their reputation for a disappointing season while the White Sox snapped their massive losing streak.

Joey Estes is projected to take the mound for the Athletics, having started 14 games this year with a 5-4 record and a below-average ERA of 4.77. While Estes ranks as the 264th best starter in MLB, he faces a White Sox lineup that has struggled immensely, ranking as the 30th best offense overall. With the White Sox only hitting 90 home runs this season, they possess little power to capitalize on Estes's high fly-ball rate.

Davis Martin will pitch for the White Sox, having a rough start to the season with a 0-1 record in just one game and a troubling ERA of 7.11. Martin's projection of 4.2 innings pitched today is concerning, especially against an Athletics offense that ranks 4th in the league with 132 home runs this season.

Betting odds favor the Athletics at -210, reflecting their perceived advantage despite their own challenges. With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs, this matchup presents an opportunity for Oakland to assert dominance in a matchup where they have the edge in both pitching and power hitting.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Davis Martin has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 23.3 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Gavin Sheets has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.4-mph dropping to 78.2-mph over the past week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Chicago White Sox bullpen profiles as the worst in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Joey Estes's high utilization rate of his fastball (55.7% this year) is likely dampening his results, considering they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

As it relates to his home runs, Lawrence Butler has been very fortunate this year. His 29.8 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 19.8.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brent Rooker in the 97th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 29 games (+10.50 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 48 games (+5.85 Units / 11% ROI)
• JJ Bleday has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.00 Units / 54% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Oakland Athletics Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 4.22 vs Oakland Athletics 4.97

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