Chicago White Sox at New York Yankees Pick & Prediction – 5/17/2024

Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 17, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mike Clevinger - White Sox
  • Nestor Cortes - Yankees

Betting Odds

Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

On May 17, 2024, the New York Yankees will host the Chicago White Sox in an American League matchup at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees, with a record of 30-15 this season, are having a great season, while the White Sox, with a record of 14-30, are struggling.

The Yankees are projected to start Nestor Cortes, a talented left-handed pitcher. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Cortes is ranked as the #37 best starting pitcher in MLB, out of approximately 350 pitchers. This suggests that Cortes is a good pitcher. He has started 9 games this year, with a Win/Loss record of 1-4 and an ERA of 4.02, which is above average. However, his 2.82 xERA (Expected ERA) is 1.20 points lower than his actual ERA, indicating that he has been unlucky this season and is likely to perform better going forward.

On the other hand, the White Sox are projected to start Mike Clevinger, a right-handed pitcher. Our advanced-stat Power Rankings indicate that Clevinger is a bad pitcher by MLB standards. He has started 2 games this year, with a Win/Loss record of 0-1 and an ERA of 5.40, which is not good. His 6.05 xERA is 0.65 points higher than his ERA, suggesting that he has been lucky this year and is likely to perform worse going forward.

In terms of offensive performance, the Yankees rank as the #3 best offense in MLB this season, while the White Sox rank as the #30 worst offense. However, it's worth noting that the Yankees rank #29 in team batting average, while the White Sox rank #22. This indicates that the Yankees' underlying talent is strong, but they have not performed well in terms of batting average.

Looking at the team's bullpen, the Yankees rank as the #17 best in MLB, while the White Sox rank as the #25 best. This suggests that the Yankees have a slight advantage in terms of bullpen strength.

Considering the projected starting pitchers and the offensive and bullpen rankings, the Yankees are the clear favorites in this game. The odds reflect this, with the Yankees having a current moneyline of -260 and an implied win probability of 70%. In contrast, the White Sox are the underdogs, with a current moneyline of +220 and an implied win probability of 30%. The Yankees also have a higher implied team total of 4.90 runs, while the White Sox have a lower implied team total of 3.10 runs.

Overall, the Yankees have the advantage in pitching, offense, and bullpen strength. However, anything can happen in baseball, so it will be interesting to see how this American League matchup unfolds.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Mike Clevinger is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.3% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #6 HR venue in the majors today.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Gavin Sheets has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (98% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Tommy Pham hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 97th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball's 5th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

With 6 batters of the opposite hand in the opposing team's projected offense, Nestor Cortes will have a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

This season, there has been a decline in Alex Verdugo's quickness with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 27.26 ft/sec last year to 26.59 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The New York Yankees projected lineup ranks as the 2nd-strongest of all teams today in terms of overall hitting ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 24 games (+6.70 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+5.05 Units / 51% ROI)
• Juan Soto has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 37 games (+7.30 Units / 10% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 3.31 vs New York Yankees 5.31

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