Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins Prediction For 8/3/2024

Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins Details

• Date: August 3, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Garrett Crochet - White Sox
  • Bailey Ober - Twins

Betting Odds

Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

As the Minnesota Twins prepare to face the Chicago White Sox on August 3, 2024, at Target Field, they come off a resounding victory in their last game, further solidifying their position in the American League Central. With a record of 59-48, the Twins are enjoying a successful season, while the White Sox struggle at 27-84, ranking as the worst in MLB. This matchup is critical for the Twins as they look to maintain their momentum against a team that has significantly underperformed.

Bailey Ober is projected to take the mound for the Twins, boasting a solid Win/Loss record of 10-5 and an ERA of 3.76. While Ober has shown the ability to pitch well, he faces a White Sox offense that has hit just 90 home runs this season, ranking as the 3rd least in the league. This could present an opportunity for Ober, who tends to give up fly balls, as the White Sox may struggle to convert those into home runs. However, Ober’s tendency to allow 4.9 hits and 0.9 walks on average could play into the hands of a team that is known for being impatient at the plate.

On the other side, Garrett Crochet is set to start for the White Sox. Although he has a respectable ERA of 3.23 and is ranked 4th among starting pitchers, his 6-8 record indicates inconsistency. Additionally, Crochet’s advanced statistics suggest he has been unlucky this season, potentially leading to a stronger performance going forward. This matchup is an intriguing one, especially given that the Twins’ offense ranks 6th in the league, significantly outpacing the White Sox's 30th rank.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Garrett Crochet to throw 74 pitches in today's game (3rd-least on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Andrew Benintendi is penciled in 6th in the batting order in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 79% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Miguel Vargas hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39% — 91st percentile) and will be challenged by MLB's 10th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Bailey Ober has utilized his secondary pitches 6.7% more often this year (61%) than he did last year (54.3%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Matt Wallner has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 101.7-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal 95.9-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected batting order for the Minnesota Twins in today's game holds an estimated true talent wOBA of .304, which is quite a bit worse than their actual wOBA of .324 this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 44 games (+12.75 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in their last 7 away games (+7.50 Units / 90% ROI)
• Jose Miranda has hit the Singles Over in his last 10 games at home (+10.05 Units / 82% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 4.1 vs Minnesota Twins 4.33

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