Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins Pick For 4/22/2024

Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins Overview

• Date: April 22, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jonathan Cannon - White Sox
  • Chris Paddack - Twins
• Run Line: White Sox 1.5 -140, Twins -1.5 120
• Money Line: White Sox 155, Twins -175
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 -105

Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Chicago White Sox - 38%
• Minnesota Twins - 62%

Projected Win %:

• Chicago White Sox - 37.94%
• Minnesota Twins - 62.06%

Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins Game Preview & Prediction

On April 22, 2024, the Minnesota Twins will face off against the Chicago White Sox at Target Field. This American League Central matchup features two struggling teams with the Twins holding a record of 7-13 and the White Sox at 3-18 this season.

The Twins will be the home team, hoping to turn their season around in front of their home crowd. They are projected to start right-handed pitcher Chris Paddack, who has had a rough start to the season with an ERA of 8.36. However, his xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward. Paddack is expected to pitch around 5.6 innings and allow 2.3 earned runs on average.

Opposing Paddack will be Jonathan Cannon, a right-handed pitcher for the White Sox. Cannon has started only one game this season, but has been impressive with an ERA of 1.80. However, his xFIP indicates that he may have been lucky and could regress in future outings. Cannon is projected to pitch around 4.8 innings and allow 2.5 earned runs on average.

The Twins offense has struggled this season, ranking as the 28th best in MLB. Their batting average ranks 22nd, while their home run production ranks 7th. On the other hand, the White Sox offense has been even worse, ranking as the 30th best in MLB. Their batting average ranks 22nd, while their home run production ranks 21st.

Looking at the betting odds, the Twins are the clear favorites with a moneyline of -175, giving them an implied win probability of 61%. The White Sox, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +150 and an implied win probability of 39%.

With the Twins having the advantage in starting pitching and a slightly better offense, they have a good chance to come out on top in this game. However, in baseball, anything can happen, and the White Sox will be looking to defy the odds and pull off an upset. It should be an intriguing matchup between these two struggling teams.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

When estimating his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Jonathan Cannon in the 9th percentile among all starting pitchers in the league.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Nicky Lopez has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (88% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st on the lineup card today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox' bullpen ranks as the worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Byron Buxton has been very bad at hitting the ball to all fields (a crucial ability for batting average), ranking in the 11th percentile in THE BAT X's Spray Score since the start of last season.

• Hitters who are unable to spray the ball around the field tend to have weak bat control and are predictable for the opposing defense, making hits tougher to come by.

Byron Buxton pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.1% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 11th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 51 of their last 83 games (+12.90 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 72 of their last 132 games (+11.80 Units / 8% ROI)
• Andrew Vaughn has only hit the Hits Over in 4 of his last 18 games (-20.20 Units / -62% ROI)

White Sox vs Twins Prediction: White Sox 3.97 - Twins 4.86

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.