Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers Best Bet – 9/27/2024

• Date: September 27, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Garrett Crochet - White Sox
  • Casey Mize - Tigers

Betting Odds

Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

The Detroit Tigers, currently holding an 85-74 record, are having an above-average season as they face the Chicago White Sox, who are enduring a dismal 39-120 season, in an American League Central matchup at Comerica Park on September 27, 2024. While the Tigers are battling for a strong finish, the White Sox have long been out of contention.

Casey Mize takes the mound for Detroit, and despite being ranked as the 115th best starting pitcher, he has struggled with a 2-6 record and a 4.36 ERA. However, Mize projects to allow just 1.9 earned runs on average today, a promising sign for the Tigers. His high-groundball rate could neutralize the White Sox's lack of power, as they rank 30th in MLB in home runs. Conversely, Garrett Crochet, ranked 3rd among starting pitchers, will start for the White Sox. Despite his elite status, his 6-12 record and 3.68 ERA suggest some bad luck this season, as indicated by his 2.40 xFIP. Crochet's projection to allow just 1.2 earned runs is a bright spot for Chicago.

Both offenses have struggled mightily, with the Tigers ranking 23rd in overall offensive performance and the White Sox sitting at the bottom. However, Detroit's bullpen, ranked 7th, might hold a significant edge over Chicago's 27th-ranked pen.

In their last outings, the Tigers edged the Rays 4-3, while the White Sox surprisingly shut out the Angels 7-0. The projections from THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, favor the Tigers with a 57% chance of victory, slightly above their implied win probability of 60%. The Tigers are expected to leverage their stronger pitching depth and bullpen to secure a win, while the White Sox will hope for Crochet to outshine his projections and lead them to an upset.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Garrett Crochet's high usage rate of his fastball (55.7% this year) is likely harming his results, since they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Gavin Sheets's average exit velocity has dropped off of late; his 87.8-mph seasonal mark has fallen to 84.2-mph in the past week's worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The 2nd-weakest projected batting order of all teams on the slate in terms of overall hitting skill belongs to the Chicago White Sox.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Casey Mize's 94.9-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 85th percentile out of all starters.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Spencer Torkelson has had some very good luck with with his wOBA this year; his .292 rate is quite a bit higher than his .254 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

The Detroit Tigers bullpen projects as the 9th-best in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 81 games (+18.35 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 31 away games (+8.25 Units / 24% ROI)
• Riley Greene has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 15 games at home (+10.10 Units / 67% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 3.62 vs Detroit Tigers 3.95

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.