Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians Best Bet – 7/3/2024

Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Details

• Date: July 3, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Erick Fedde - White Sox
  • Gavin Williams - Guardians

Betting Odds

Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

As we head into the second game of the series on July 3, 2024, the Cleveland Guardians are in a commanding position. With a stellar 53-30 record, they lead the American League Central, while the Chicago White Sox are struggling at 24-63. The Guardians are heavy favorites with a moneyline of -175, translating to an implied win probability of 62%.

Cleveland will send Gavin Williams to the mound. Rated as the 83rd-best starting pitcher by THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Williams has been solid this season. He projects to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing 2.2 earned runs and striking out 5.1 batters on average. However, his high walk and hit projections (1.3 and 5.0, respectively) could be areas of concern. Despite these minor drawbacks, Williams should benefit from facing a White Sox offense that ranks 29th in MLB in both batting average and home runs.

On the other side, Chicago will counter with Erick Fedde, ranked 69th among starting pitchers. Fedde has posted a commendable 3.23 ERA this season, though his 3.78 SIERA suggests he may have been a bit fortunate. Projections have him pitching 5.6 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs, and striking out 4.0 batters. Like Williams, Fedde's high walk and hit projections (1.6 and 5.8, respectively) could spell trouble, especially against a Guardians offense that ranks 10th in home runs and 8th in stolen bases.

The Guardians' bullpen, ranked 3rd in the Power Rankings, will likely provide a strong backstop if Williams falters. In contrast, the White Sox bullpen ranks 28th, which could be a significant disadvantage as the game progresses.

In their last outing, the Guardians showcased their offensive prowess with Jhonkensy Noel leading the charge, boasting a 1.055 OPS over the past week. Meanwhile, Andrew Vaughn has been a bright spot for the White Sox, hitting .368 with a 1.248 OPS over the last seven games.

Overall, the Guardians' superior bullpen, better offensive metrics, and home-field advantage at Progressive Field make them the clear favorites in this matchup. Expect Cleveland to capitalize on Chicago's weaknesses and continue their strong season.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Erick Fedde has posted an 8.5% Swinging Strike rate this year, checking in at the 15th percentile.

• Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.

Paul DeJong's average exit velocity has declined lately; his 88-mph seasonal figure has dropped to 84-mph in the last two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Tommy Pham hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 96th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 7th-deepest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Gavin Williams has averaged 70.3 adjusted pitches per outing this year, grading out in the 2nd percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Steven Kwan's true offensive ability to be a .309, providing some evidence that he has been lucky this year given the .106 disparity between that mark and his actual .415 wOBA.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

It may be best to expect worse numbers for the Cleveland Guardians offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the luckiest offense in the game this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 52 of their last 83 games (+17.60 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 39 away games (+5.70 Units / 13% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez has hit the Home Runs Over in 15 of his last 43 games (+36.30 Units / 84% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 3.87 vs Cleveland Guardians 4.88

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