Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs Pick & Prediction – 6/4/2024

Chicago White Sox vs Chicago Cubs Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: June 4, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Flexen - White Sox
  • Shota Imanaga - Cubs

Betting Odds

Chicago White Sox vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

In an interleague matchup scheduled for June 4, 2024, the Chicago Cubs will host the Chicago White Sox at Wrigley Field. The Cubs, with a record of 29-31, are having a below-average season, while the White Sox, with a record of 15-45, are experiencing a terrible season.

On the mound, the Cubs are projected to start left-handed pitcher Shota Imanaga, who has been performing above average this season. Meanwhile, the White Sox are expected to start right-handed pitcher Chris Flexen, who has struggled and is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB.

Imanaga has a win/loss record of 5-1 this year, with an excellent ERA of 1.86. However, his peripheral indicator, xFIP, suggests that he may have been lucky this season and could potentially perform worse going forward. On the other hand, Flexen has a record of 2-5 with a poor ERA of 5.50. His xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and could improve in future performances.

The Cubs' offense ranks as the 20th best in MLB this season, while the White Sox have the worst offense in the league. The Cubs have been strong in team batting average and stolen bases, ranking 9th and 6th respectively, while the White Sox have struggled in these categories.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects the Cubs as a massive favorite with a 72% win probability. The White Sox, on the other hand, are considered a massive underdog with a 28% win probability.

Based on the current odds, the Cubs have a high implied team total of 5.61 runs, while the White Sox have a low implied team total of 3.39 runs. THE BAT X projects the Cubs to score an average of 6.35 runs in this game, while the White Sox are projected to score 4.10 runs.

Considering the Cubs' superior record, the strength of their starting pitcher, and their offensive ranking, they are expected to have the upper hand in this matchup. However, baseball is an unpredictable game, and anything can happen on any given day.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Among all SPs, Chris Flexen's fastball spin rate of 2131 rpm ranks in the 12th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Zach Remillard has had some very good luck with with his wOBA since the start of last season; his .277 mark is a fair amount higher than his .198 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox' bullpen profiles as the 6th-worst among all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Shota Imanaga has tallied 17.4 outs per outing this year, placing in the 82nd percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Christopher Morel has big-time power (95th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (27.3% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Chris Flexen doesn't generate many whiffs (25th percentile K%) — great news for Morel.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

Christopher Morel pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.1% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 41 games (+8.90 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 29 away games (+4.70 Units / 15% ROI)
• Ian Happ has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 14 games at home (+6.85 Units / 33% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 3.29 vs Chicago Cubs 5.27

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