Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs Pick For 6/5/2024

Chicago White Sox vs Chicago Cubs Details

• Date: June 5, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Erick Fedde - White Sox
  • Jameson Taillon - Cubs

Betting Odds

Chicago White Sox vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

On June 5, 2024, the Chicago Cubs will face off against the Chicago White Sox at Wrigley Field in an Interleague matchup. The Cubs, with a record of 30-31, are having an average season, while the White Sox, with a record of 15-46, are struggling with a terrible season.

The Cubs are projected to start right-handed pitcher Jameson Taillon, who has a Win/Loss record of 3-2 and an impressive ERA of 2.84 this year. However, his 4.47 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could perform worse going forward. On the other hand, the White Sox are projected to start right-handed pitcher Erick Fedde, who has a Win/Loss record of 4-1 and a solid ERA of 3.12. Like Taillon, Fedde's 3.69 xFIP indicates that he may regress in future performances.

In their last game, the Cubs defeated the White Sox by a score of 7-6. The Cubs were a massive favorite in that game, with a closing Moneyline price of -290 and an implied win probability of 72%. The White Sox, as massive underdogs, had a closing Moneyline price of +245 and an implied win probability of 28%.

According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Taillon is ranked as the #133 best starting pitcher in MLB, while Fedde is ranked #79. The Cubs have the advantage in bullpen rankings, as they are ranked #10, while the White Sox are ranked #24.

The Cubs offense ranks as the #20 best in MLB this season, with an average team batting average and an average ranking in team home runs. However, they excel in stolen bases, ranking #6. On the other hand, the White Sox offense ranks as the worst in MLB, with a low team batting average, home run ranking, and stolen base ranking.

Based on the current odds, the Cubs are the big betting favorite with a moneyline of -185 and an implied win probability of 63%. THE BAT X projects the Cubs as a big favorite with a win probability of 64%. The Cubs have a high implied team total of 4.85 runs for this game.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Erick Fedde's high utilization rate of his secondary pitches (67.8% this year) ought to work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Nicky Lopez is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 57% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Chicago White Sox bullpen ranks as the 6th-worst in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Jameson Taillon's fastball velocity has fallen 1.1 mph this season (91.9 mph) below where it was last season (93 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Nico Hoerner's quickness has dropped off this season. His 28.54 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 28.02 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Christopher Morel pulls many of his flyballs (38.1% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 30 of their last 48 games (+9.65 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 10 away games (+4.90 Units / 47% ROI)
• Christopher Morel has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+10.65 Units / 28% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 4.26 vs Chicago Cubs 5.09

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.