Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Sox Best Bet – 9/8/2024

• Date: September 8, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Flexen - White Sox
  • Richard Fitts - Red Sox

Betting Odds

Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox host the Chicago White Sox at Fenway Park on September 8, 2024, in the third game of their series. The Red Sox, sitting at 72-70, are in the midst of an average season, while the White Sox are struggling significantly with a dismal 32-111 record. Last night, the Red Sox emerged victorious against the White Sox, winning 7-5, continuing their strong offensive performance, which ranks 6th in MLB.

On the mound, the Red Sox are projected to start Richard Fitts, who, despite an average performance this season, is facing a White Sox lineup that has been among the worst in MLB. Fitts is expected to pitch around 5.1 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs with a concerning projection of 5.2 hits. In contrast, Chris Flexen, the White Sox starter, has had a nightmarish season, with a 2-14 record and an ERA of 5.36. Flexen’s last start was particularly troubling, as he lasted only 3 innings while giving up 3 earned runs.

The projections suggest that the Red Sox should dominate offensively, with an implied team total of 5.82 runs. The White Sox, on the other hand, have a low implied total of 3.68 runs, reflecting their offensive struggles, which rank dead last in MLB. The Red Sox's best hitter this season, Jarren Duran, has been a consistent force, contributing significantly to their offensive output.

Given the disparity in records and performances, the Red Sox are heavy favorites, with betting lines reflecting a moneyline of -260. With the Red Sox's potent offense and Flexen's struggles on the mound, this matchup is poised to heavily favor Boston as they aim to build on their recent success.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Chris Flexen has relied on his off-speed and breaking balls 8.5% more often this year (63%) than he did last year (54.5%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Nicky Lopez has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (53% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox' bullpen ranks as the worst among all the teams in the game.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Tyler O'Neill has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 97.7-mph average to last year's 92.8-mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Jarren Duran has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 24 games (+5.90 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 37 of their last 69 away games (+5.85 Units / 8% ROI)
• Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 47 games (+8.75 Units / 14% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 4.37 vs Boston Red Sox 5.72

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