Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Sox Best Bet – 9/6/2024

• Date: September 6, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Davis Martin - White Sox
  • Nick Pivetta - Red Sox

Betting Odds

Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

As the Boston Red Sox prepare to host the Chicago White Sox on September 6, 2024, both teams find themselves on opposite ends of the performance spectrum this season. The Red Sox sit at a .500 record of 70-70, while the White Sox languish at a dismal 32-109, marking one of the worst seasons in recent memory. This matchup becomes particularly intriguing as Boston boasts the 6th best offense in MLB, while Chicago ranks dead last at 30th.

Nick Pivetta, projected to start for Boston, is statistically the better pitcher in this matchup; he ranks as the 74th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, which suggests he has been unlucky this year with a 4.53 ERA. Pivetta's ability to limit walks (5.8 BB%) will be crucial against a White Sox lineup that has been one of the least patient in the league.

On the other side, Chicago's Davis Martin, who has a 0-3 record and a solid 3.62 ERA, is projected to struggle against a potent Red Sox lineup. His xFIP of 4.19 suggests that he may have benefitted from some good fortune this season, making him vulnerable against a lineup that ranks 4th in batting average and 7th in home runs.

With an average game total set at 8.5 runs, and the Red Sox being a heavy favorite with a moneyline of -260, there’s a strong belief that they will dominate this matchup. The projections indicate that Boston could score as many as 5.21 runs, while Chicago is expected to struggle to reach 3.29 runs. This game presents a prime opportunity for the Red Sox to assert their dominance and continue their push for a better season finish.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Davis Martin is projected to throw 84 pitches in this outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 10th-least on the slate.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Dominic Fletcher's average exit velocity has dropped off recently; his 83.5-mph seasonal figure has dropped off to 79.7-mph in the past two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox' bullpen projects as the worst among all the teams in MLB.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Nick Pivetta's slider rate has increased by 12.5% from last year to this one (17.4% to 29.9%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Tyler O'Neill has had positive variance on his side this year. His .363 mark has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .322.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Jarren Duran has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 27 games (+6.30 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 34 games (+5.85 Units / 15% ROI)
• Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+11.40 Units / 74% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 3.77 vs Boston Red Sox 5.48

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